Academy Watch is an Oscar prediction show with a critic's attention span and a bettor's need to keep updating the board. It follows awards season as a moving target. Beau Nicholson works through reviews, precursor results, category forecasts, nomination strength, and post-ceremony takeaways with a conversational but highly tracked sense of where the race stands. The show can be ledger-like when the Oscars have just finished. It can also slow down for a contender and ask what the film is actually doing before assigning it any awards heat. Project Hail Mary becomes a discussion of science fiction, character work, climate anxiety, and how early-year enthusiasm might survive into later in the year. Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein, F1, K-pop Demon Hunters, Marty Supreme, Avatar, and One Battle After Another are treated less as isolated titles than as pieces in an awards ecosystem. The categories matter. Editing, score, sound, cinematography, casting, makeup, production design, acting, screenplay, and international feature all get their own shifting logic. The show is comfortable saying something is a lock. It is also comfortable admitting when the data is thin, as with documentary surprises or a brand-new casting category. Guest episodes add texture without turning the show into generic film chat. Ian Buckley and Sam Stokes bring tradition, precursor tracking, and Best Picture arguments into the final prediction episodes. Sean Wilson helps turn Best Original Score into a deeper craft conversation, with film music history in the frame. Festival recaps, including Cannes conversations with Sam Stokes, widen the scope before awards season fully forms. The tone stays spoiler-aware and fairly brisk. It often moves from a scene, speech, guild result, or acceptance moment into a broader claim about the industry or the Academy's habits. There is humor, but the show is not casual about evidence. It notices when a speech matters, when a precursor changes the math, and when a favorite only looks inevitable because no one has tested it properly. The result is awards talk for people who enjoy prediction as an argument, not as a list of names read aloud.