The Big Steal · Fresh Air Production

Russia On the Brink?

December 14, 2021·52 min·4 clips

An old NATO joke reveals why Russia's borderlands are one minute to midnight.

The episode opens with the historical context of NATO's founding purpose—keeping Americans in Europe, Russians out, and Germans down—and the ongoing tension over whether NATO has been too aggressive in expanding eastward. Lord Ricketts, who chaired the UK's Joint Intelligence Committee under Tony Blair, frames Putin's behavior as driven by deep insecurity about Russia's standing following the Soviet collapse. Putin's primary goal, Ricketts argues, is ensuring no neighboring state—Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus—falls into the Western camp. Anne Applebaum shifts the analysis to Russia's relationship with the EU, arguing Russia does not simply disrespect Brussels but actively works to destroy the bloc, preferring bilateral negotiations where Russia holds more leverage. The humiliation of EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell during his 2021 Moscow visit is presented as a deliberate demonstration of that contempt. Mark Galeotti explains that NATO's strength—its Article 5 mutual defence guarantee—is also its weakness, as it cannot address the below-threshold threats Russia actually poses: disinformation, money, and political interference. Keir Giles argues the EU has no meaningful response to the Russian challenge, and that politicians repeatedly arrive in Moscow believing they can solve the Russia problem, only to be disillusioned. The impact of Brexit is explored: it weakens the EU's overall Russia stance by removing a harder-line voice, but frees the UK to pursue its own Russia policy. KGB defector Yuri Bezmenov is quoted on the goal of demoralization—not convincing audiences of a new truth but destroying their trust in truth itself. Georgia's experience is examined through Natia Siskuria of RUSI, who details how Russia shifted from conventional military action in 2008 to hybrid tools, using Georgia as a testing ground. Daniel Fried, former US diplomat, offers cautious optimism, noting the Czech Republic's forceful response to the discovery of the 2014 Vrbetice arms depot explosion as an example of a small country standing firm against Russian pressure with Western backing. Bill Browder explains in concrete terms why Magnitsky Act sanctions devastate targeted oligarchs: frozen bank accounts, cancelled travel, grounded private jets, and social isolation. Vladimir Karamurza, who survived two poisoning attempts attributed to his Magnitsky advocacy, argues the problem is not the Act's design but its incomplete implementation. He notes that months after Navalny's arrest, most of the 35 individuals identified by Navalny's team remained freely able to travel. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man who was jailed after confronting Putin on corruption, and now in exile, provides closing remarks alongside Karamurza. The episode ends by noting Europe's dependence on Russian gas via Nord Stream 2 and framing energy reliance as a structural vulnerability Putin can exploit.

As heard by us

A steady look at Russia's power politics, humiliation, and the West's limits.

The episode treats Russia's borderlands, NATO expansion, and Putin's sense of humiliation as a live strategic problem, not a history lesson. Its strongest stretch comes when it gets specific, especially around the Czech Republic arms depot case in Vrbyatica and the larger…

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Why you'd press play

A measured guide to Russia, NATO, and the winter 2021 flashpoint.

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