Next Economy · Giornale Radio

Next Economy di Venerdì 10 Aprile 2026

·1 hr 45 min·8 clips

Host Manuela Donghi opens Next Economy discussing the fragile Middle East truce, Trump's threats over the Hormuz Strait, and cautious European markets.

1. Next Economy on Giornale Radio broadcasts on April 10, 2026, reviewing the week's developments as US-Iran peace talks are scheduled for the weekend and European markets cautiously maintain gains. 2. Host Manuela Donghi leads the episode; guests include Silvia Merler, director of research at Algebris Investments, and Daniele Pistolesi and Alessandro Vailati from AFW (Association of Financial Fraud Victims). 3. The episode's key question is whether the current ceasefire will translate into durable peace negotiations or another cycle of failed ultimatums, and what the economic damage already done means for Italy regardless of outcome. 4. European markets are cautiously positive: Italy's FTSE MIB stands above 47,000 points, the Nikkei reached its highest since early March (+1.90%), and all major European indices are in positive territory. 5. The specific sticking point in the ceasefire is Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz to 15 ships per day with a transit toll — terms Trump publicly called 'terrible management' of the agreement and threatened to resume conflict over. 6. Israel is continuing raids on Lebanese Hezbollah targets despite the ceasefire framework, and Iran says it will not participate in peace talks if Lebanese attacks continue, creating a nested diplomatic impasse. 7. An Iranian delegation was reportedly in Islamabad for indirect negotiations, but Iranian state media denied the report, leaving the status of weekend talks uncertain. 8. A Bruegel think tank paper published days earlier, cited by Merler, concludes that a formal Hormuz transit toll would predominantly cost the Gulf oil producers rather than European importers — counterintuitive because Gulf producers ship through Hormuz themselves. 9. Merler qualifies the Bruegel finding: it holds only under the assumption of restored shipping volumes; as of April 10, Brent crude is still between $90–100 per barrel, well above pre-war levels, indicating the restoration has not occurred. 10. US markets priced in two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026 before the war; as of April 10, the consensus has shifted to zero cuts as Hormuz-driven energy inflation creates upward price pressure while US growth indicators and jobs data are weakening simultaneously. 11. US GDP came in below expectations, adding to Fed pressure, and US CPI data is due that afternoon and will give the first clear read on whether energy inflation is feeding into the headline figure. 12. Minister Giorgetti revised Italian GDP forecasts slightly downward while maintaining that Italy is 'resilient' and cautioning against reading too much into any single projection in a period of extreme uncertainty. 13. The IMF's director Georgieva cut global growth forecasts across the board but said the institution would update projections once the situation stabilises, while S&P Global and Oxford Economics also revised Italy's outlook downward. 14. Brunello Cucinelli shares performed strongly on April 10 after first-quarter revenue beat expectations, a rare domestic positive in an otherwise cautious session. 15. The weekly fraud education segment covers 'Recovery Room' schemes — a second-stage fraud targeting people already victimised by financial fraud, where criminals impersonate Consob, the London FCA, AFW, or legal firms offering guaranteed capital recovery. 16. Pistolesi describes a specific recent case: a victim received a convincing email with Agenzia delle Entrate branding and a pre-filled F24 tax form, but the payment instruction was to a Hong Kong private company — the tell-tale sign it was fraudulent. 17. Vailati emphasises that psychological targeting means no one is immune; scammers develop many different approaches to capture different people's attention, and the fraudsters' premise that 'this is the only way to recover your money' exploits the victim's existing vulnerability. 18. Pistolesi and Vailati advise: never act in a hurry; verify any contact by going directly to the official website of Consob or Agenzia delle Entrate before making any payment; and recognise that legitimate recovery services never guarantee outcomes or demand upfront fees. 19. The programme's tone on this final session of the week is reflective and consolidating — Donghi weaves between live market data, geopolitical updates, expert analysis, and listener messages — including plans for a summer travel segment. 20. Italian-speaking listeners tracking the peace negotiation timeline, European monetary policy expectations, and consumer fraud protection will find this episode directly relevant.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Next Economy