Next Economy · Giornale Radio

Next Economy di Mercoledì 08 Aprile 2026

·1 hr 44 min·8 clips

Commodities expert Giuseppe Lauria reveals 130 million barrels of oil, 46 million barrels of refined fuels, and 800 ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf — the scale of the supply backlog created by the Hormuz closure.

1. Next Economy on Giornale Radio broadcasts on April 8, 2026, covering the historic overnight two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran. 2. Host Manuela Donghi leads the episode; guests include Giuseppe Lauria, commodities and raw-materials expert, and Prof. Giovanni Ferri, ordinary professor of economics at the University of Lumsa. 3. The episode's driving question is whether the ceasefire will translate into a definitive peace, and what the immediate and structural economic effects of 40+ days of Hormuz closure will be. 4. The ceasefire was agreed less than 90 minutes after the expiry of Trump's self-described 'final, hardest' ultimatum, with Iran agreeing to Hormuz transit under Iranian military supervision for 14 days. 5. Tehran's ten-point peace plan, accepted by Trump, includes a US commitment to non-aggression, abrogation of IAEA resolutions on Iran's nuclear programme, war reparations for Iran, Hormuz toll revenues directed to Iran-Oman reconstruction, US withdrawal from the region, and a ceasefire across all fronts including Israel-Hezbollah in Lebanon. 6. Global markets responded with the largest single-session gains in months: FTSE MIB +3.51% (recovering to 47,000 points), DAX +4.64% (past 24,000), Paris CAC +3.97%, Nikkei +5.42% (best since early March), Shanghai +2.62%, Hang Seng +3.09%. 7. Dubai's main index surged approximately 10% — its largest intraday gain in over 11 years — as the ceasefire removed direct military threat to UAE territory; Qatar's index rose over 3%, Riyadh +1.8%, Kuwait +1.78%. 8. Oil recorded its largest single-session decline in nearly six years: Brent futures fell 13–14%, the spot price touched a -19% drop, and European natural gas at Amsterdam TTF fell below €45 per megawatt-hour. 9. Lauria explains that the ceasefire unlocks an enormous backlog: approximately 130 million barrels of crude oil, 46 million barrels of refined products, 34 VLCC supertankers, 19 additional tankers, and roughly 800 total vessels including container and dry-goods ships currently anchored in the Persian Gulf. 10. European and Asian refineries had been paying up to $150 per barrel for certain light crude grades during the crisis — well above the $95–100 futures reference — illustrating the supply stress the ceasefire resolves. 11. Lauria cautions that China's role as a guarantor deserves attention: China imports approximately $110 billion of oil and gas through Hormuz annually, giving it the strongest economic incentive to broker the ceasefire through Pakistani mediation. 12. Prof. Ferri frames the Chinese brokerage as evidence of the accelerating decline of US soft power: the US did not obtain the ceasefire it negotiated — China did — and this will affect international trust in the US as an ally. 13. Ferri argues globalization began breaking down after the 2008 financial crisis, when China — which had large US commercial and investment exposure — began to doubt American reliability, and that this trend is now accelerating toward regional blocs: Europe, India, China. 14. He identifies Italy's structural weakness as its total fossil-fuel import dependency, absence of nuclear power, and insufficient renewable investment, noting that France (nuclear) and Spain (renewables) are far better positioned. 15. Ferri names a recent near-miss: the Italian government had been about to cancel Industry 5.0 incentives weeks earlier, which would have reduced business investment and added uncertainty — a reminder that domestic policy errors compound external shocks. 16. He recommends Italy focus on its genuine competitive strength — the flexibility and adaptability of Italian entrepreneurship — and support companies with technological investment, human capital training, and a stable policy framework. 17. Salvini's statement that fuel pump prices should fall as quickly as they rose is discussed: Donghi explains that oil falling one day does not immediately translate to pump prices, because current pump stock was purchased at higher costs and retailers have buffer mechanisms. 18. The programme also discusses listener Fabio Danovara's proposal for common European public bonds to fund gas purchases, which Donghi endorses in principle while noting Europe's ongoing coordination failures. 19. The episode's tone is celebratory but carefully hedged; Donghi consistently reminds listeners that the ceasefire is temporary, Trump retains the option to restart conflict, and economic normality will take time to restore even in the best-case scenario. 20. The episode is best suited to Italian-speaking listeners following the Middle East peace process, European energy markets, and the geopolitical rebalancing away from US hegemony.

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