Next Economy · Giornale Radio

Next Economy di Martedì 31 Marzo 2026

·1 hr 45 min·8 clips

Spain went from 42% to 60% renewables since 2022; Germany from 44% to 54%; Italy from 38% to 40% — the country with the greatest need fell furthest behind.

1. Next Economy, broadcast on Giornale Radio on March 31, 2026, focuses on the economic and financial fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict and the Hormuz Strait crisis. 2. Host Manuela Donghi anchors the two-hour programme; guests include Sara Silano, editor-in-chief of Morningstar Italy, and Maurizio Tarquini, Director General of Confindustria. 3. The episode's central question is whether Italy and Europe can avoid an outright GDP contraction in 2026 as the Hormuz disruption turns into a full energy shock. 4. Iran's parliament approved a formal toll regime for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies pass; some vessels reportedly paid millions of dollars in informal tolls even before this legislation. 5. A drone strike attributed to Iran hit a tanker in the port of Dubai following continued US military strikes, pushing Brent crude sharply above $100 per barrel on Asian markets. 6. Trump stated he wants to end the war with Iran even if the Strait does not reopen, offering markets a brief positive signal, though Donghi and Silano caution that his statements change daily. 7. Italian ISTAT data for March 2026 showed consumer price inflation at 1.7% year-on-year, up from 1.5% the prior month, with the grocery basket rising to 2.2%. 8. The EU statistical office's Flash estimate placed Eurozone March inflation at 2.5%, above the prior month's 1.9% but below the analyst consensus of 2.6%; core inflation (excluding energy and food) came in at 2.3%. 9. Sara Silano of Morningstar Italy notes that markets are pricing in geopolitical uncertainty unevenly, partly because investors searching for daily trading drivers react to every Trump statement regardless of reliability. 10. Silano argues the conflict has revealed a 'resistance component' markets initially underpriced when three scenarios — short war, medium war, prolonged war — were first mapped at the conflict's outbreak. 11. A listener named Mauro raises the speculation argument: if a truck's fuel cost rises by 50-100 euros per load carrying thousands of items, the per-unit impact is small, yet prices rise far more, pointing to speculative price amplification. 12. Tarquini confirms speculation and expectation effects drive exaggerated price increases beyond actual cost pass-through, and identifies the Hormuz situation as the decisive variable for which market scenario prevails. 13. Confindustria's spring 2026 forecast shows Italy's baseline GDP revised downward, with the worst-case scenario — a conflict lasting through December with no policy response — implying a swing from +0.7% to -0.7% growth. 14. Tarquini prescribes three immediate European-level responses: suspend the Stability Pact to allow energy-subsidy spending (as was done in 2022), prevent interest-rate increases, and accelerate renewable energy installations. 15. Comparing renewable energy shares since 2022, Tarquini notes Spain rose from 42% to 60%, Germany from 44% to 54%, and Italy from only 38% to 40%, calling Italy's stagnation a competitive liability. 16. On export resilience, Tarquini cites data showing 8% of Italian export products change destination each year versus Germany's 5%, describing Italy as Europe's fastest export-redirecting economy and pointing to the Mercosur and India free-trade agreements as recent wins. 17. On productivity, Tarquini distinguishes firm size: Italy matches Germany for large firms, outperforms on medium firms, but lags significantly on small and micro enterprises where most of the productivity gap lies. 18. The programme's tone is journalistic and data-heavy; Donghi interrupts with targeted follow-up questions and reads live data on-air, while Tarquini speaks in policy frameworks and comparative statistics. 19. The episode is best suited to Italian listeners following domestic economic policy, energy market dynamics, and European fiscal governance debates. 20. Listeners uninterested in Italian-language content or in the granular detail of Confindustria forecasts and ECB policy trajectories may not find sufficient value.

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