Next Economy · Giornale Radio

Next Economy di Giovedì 09 Aprile 2026

·1 hr 44 min·8 clips

Prof. Riccardo Trezzi warns Italy's 60–90-day strategic gas stockpile means current normality is a buffer — and a serious recession arrives by June if Hormuz stays closed.

1. Next Economy on Giornale Radio broadcasts on April 9, 2026, covering the fragile truce between the US and Iran and its immediate fuel-price consequences for Italian consumers. 2. Host Manuela Donghi leads the episode; guests include Professor Riccardo Trezzi, economist and macroeconomics professor at the University of Pavia, and Giacomo Maini, economist at Will Media. 3. The episode's core question is whether the announced US-Iran ceasefire is a genuine diplomatic turning point or a tactical pause — and what Italy's fuel and economic situation looks like in either scenario. 4. European markets reopened slightly negative on April 9 after Milan's FTSE MIB gained nearly 4% the previous day, recovering to near pre-war capitalisation levels; the FTSE MIB stood at 47,000 points with a -0.17% move. 5. The truce is described as fragile: Israel continued military operations in Lebanon and Beirut overnight despite the ceasefire, and Iran responded by hitting a Saudi facility and keeping Hormuz closed. 6. Two ships managed to transit Hormuz briefly after the ceasefire announcement before the strait was closed again, and Trump stated he wants a 'quota' — a share of Iran's Hormuz toll revenue — as part of any agreement. 7. PM Giorgia Meloni addressed Parliament on the crisis, stating that Italy may not have necessary energy supplies if Persian Gulf instability worsens, calling for a suspension of the Stability Pact if the crisis deepens, and pledging action against speculative profits from energy companies. 8. Opposition politician Angelo Bonelli cited a 2022 proposal by approximately 100 Italian companies offering to invest €85 billion to install 60 gigawatts of renewable capacity in three years — a plan that would have reduced gas dependency by 15 billion cubic metres — that the Meloni government rejected. 9. Trezzi identifies Italy's structural energy fragility: the country imports almost all its petroleum, has no nuclear power, invested less than required in renewables, and depends heavily on fossil fuels. 10. Trezzi explains that Western Europeans have not yet felt shortages because strategic gas stockpiles of roughly 60–90 days are absorbing the shock; he warns this buffer will run out by late May and a serious recession could follow in June. 11. Trezzi criticises official government reassurances of 'no supply concerns' as politically motivated, calling it 'putting your head in the sand' and warning that consumers will be surprised if a recession arrives without prior warning. 12. The spot price of Brent reached over $140 per barrel — well above the futures market reference of around $95–100 — revealing a gap between forward-market pricing and the actual supply pressure visible in the spot market. 13. The Guardia di Finanza conducted 1,089 checks at fuel distributors between March 12–25 and found 795 violations (approximately 73%) for failure to comply with price transparency rules, a record violation rate. 14. As of April 9, Italian fuel prices average €1.792 per litre for petrol and €2.184 per litre for diesel on national roads, with slightly higher prices on motorways. 15. Economist Giacomo Maini distinguishes legitimate price expectation dynamics (retailers pricing in anticipated future costs) from real speculation, identifying the latter in $950 million of short positions on oil placed about one hour before Trump's ceasefire announcement, attributed to a White House information leak — what he and listener Giuseppe describe as market manipulation rather than speculation. 16. Diesel is more expensive than petrol in Italy partly because the Meloni government aligned diesel and petrol excise taxes before the conflict, removing the historical fiscal advantage for diesel — a measure intended to discourage diesel car purchases for environmental reasons. 17. Maini notes that with electric trucks representing less than 1% of the fleet, the diesel tax alignment hits logistics and freight companies especially hard, and combined with the energy crisis, threatens some to close. 18. The programme's tone is continuous news-tracking with live data integration; Donghi reads breaking items on-air and engages both expert guests and listener messages simultaneously. 19. Italian-speaking listeners tracking live energy policy, fuel prices, and economic scenarios from the ongoing Hormuz crisis will find the episode directly relevant. 20. Listeners without Italian comprehension or looking for consumer-level personal finance advice rather than macro and policy analysis will not benefit.

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