Wall Street Unplugged - What's Really Moving These Markets

Oil is plunging—are stocks in the clear?

·1 hr·5 clips

Oil plunges 20% on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, catching hedge funds off guard and sparking a market surge.

The episode opens with casual banter about personal anecdotes and sports before pivoting to market analysis. Frank Curzio introduces 'adjustment day' following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal, which caused oil to drop 20% and stocks to surge. He explains how hedge funds were caught on the wrong side of this move. The hosts then delve into S&P 500 earnings season, citing FactSet data that projects 13% year-over-year growth for Q1, largely fueled by energy and materials sectors. They highlight that consumer staples companies like General Mills and Mondelez have seen earnings estimates revised significantly lower since December. Frank argues against bottom-fishing in these stocks due to declining margins. The conversation shifts to technology, noting that mega-cap tech stocks have given back AI gains and trade at levels similar to late 2022. Frank compares Microsoft and NVIDIA, favoring NVIDIA for its higher growth rate. Later, Frank uses Levi's earnings call to illustrate a broader retail trend: brands are increasingly selling direct-to-consumer via AI and social media, threatening big-box retailers like Walmart and Costco. He warns that these third-party resellers face disruption. The episode concludes with a debate on Tesla, where Frank cites a JP Morgan note that slashed long-term earnings estimates by over 80% and highlighted declines in EV deliveries and energy storage. Daniel acknowledges the fundamental risks but cautions against shorting due to Elon Musk's influence. Throughout, the hosts emphasize volatility in earnings season and geopolitical uncertainties, while teasing upcoming premium content.

As heard by us

A blunt look at tech and AI markets, with a loose but energetic tour through big tech.

The episode stays with large-cap technology and the AI trade, using a chart to argue that mega-cap tech is back at the level it reached when ChatGPT arrived in late 2022.

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Why you'd press play

If mega-cap tech has you checking the chart, this one walks straight into it.

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