VSiN College Football Betting Podcast · VSiN

Early College Football Win Totals Breakdown + Best Bets You NEED to Know

·38 min·2 clips

Joshua Nunn values a half-win at about 60 cents and says a full-win gap with similar juice means one market is wrong.

1. VSiN's College Football Betting Podcast reviews early 2026 regular-season win totals, recorded March 25 with Week Zero 157 days away. 2. Host Tim Murray is joined by Joshua Nunn of the Action Network, who goes by "Step on a Duck" on Twitter and calls regular-season wins his favorite derivative market. 3. Nunn's thesis is that heavy roster turnover, shown by returning-production rankings, makes unders the best early targets in four P4 programs. 4. On Penn State's 9.5, he says new coach Matt Campbell inherits an offense that lost its two top running backs, eight of the top nine receivers and four of five offensive line starters, and he expects "eight and four" over "ten and two" (FanDuel -148, BetMGM -145). 5. On Vanderbilt's 6.5, he cites the lowest returning production among P4 teams, the loss of Diego Pavia, four of five offensive line starters and four of the top five defensive linemen, plus back-to-back road games at Auburn and Georgia. 6. On Wake Forest, he notes BetMGM hangs 6.5 (-115) while the rest of the market sits at 5.5, and he argues that QB Geo Lopez, a rebuilt line and the loss of Demond Claiborne (907 rushing yards) make seven wins "completely out of reach." 7. On Cincinnati's 5.5 (plus money, +108 at FanDuel), he points to a quarterback downgrade from Brendan Sorsby to Liam O'Brien or JC French, a defense that allowed 20 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions, and a schedule with six of the projected top seven Big 12 teams. 8. Nunn values a half-win at about 60 cents, versus the roughly 70 cents Brad Powers has cited, and says matching juice across a full-win gap means one market is wrong, which creates a middle opportunity on Wake Forest at 6. 9. He passes on Texas Tech's 11.5 over at about +150 because it requires a perfect season, takes the Red Raiders at about even money to win the Big 12, and prefers Notre Dame to make the playoff, marking November 7 against Miami as the spot to lay the number. 10. Suits bettors who handicap college football win totals before the season starts.

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