[REPLAY] Greg Orrell: How To Beat The GDX

·1 hr 19 min·5 clips

Greg Orrell's gold fund returned 81.44% since 2007, while the GDX ETF returned only 6.10%.

The episode is a replay of an interview with Greg Orrell, portfolio manager of the OCM Gold Fund. Host Brandon introduces the episode by highlighting Orrell's fund's significant outperformance versus the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) since 2007. Orrell begins by recounting his entry into gold mining securities in 1983 and taking over the fund in 1997. He explains his core investment philosophy: a tiered portfolio allocation across major producers, intermediates, junior producers, royalties, and explorers to capture capital flows. Orrell emphasizes the importance of management teams with proven track records, a focus on holding equity dear to avoid dilution, and significant insider ownership, especially in smaller companies. He details his due diligence process, including key questions for management and red flags like unrealistic expectations or poor capital market understanding. The conversation delves into specific holdings, with a deep dive into AYA Gold & Silver, a 12% position where Orrell participated early and saw substantial returns. He discusses the challenges of the mining business, including long lead times, permitting, and capital allocation between growth and shareholder returns. Orrell analyzes the macro environment for gold miners, citing the inverse relationship with tech stocks, current strong balance sheets, and the need for a sentiment shift to drive capital flows. He outlines his selling strategy, which involves moving to more conservative holdings like royalties during perceived market peaks. The episode concludes with Orrell sharing how to learn more about his fund and a lighthearted question about which historical and present figures he'd like to dine with.

As heard by us

A practical look at how to question mining projects, from permitting and strip ratios to metallurgy and mill time.

Greg frames better mining-company questions as a test of management under pressure. The conversation stays close to the points that matter: what might go right, what might go wrong, which obstacles deserve attention, how management says it will handle them, and which answers…

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Why you'd press play

You want a sharper way to test mining-company optimism before it hardens into an expensive story.

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