إيران... من الردع إلى التآكل _بقلم إبراهيم حميدي لمجلة المجلة_
·7 min
The episode opens by contrasting expectations of Iran's dramatic regime collapse with the reality of a slow, erosive process. It argues that regime falls, like Saddam Hussein's in 2003, often begin years before the final event. For Iran, key strikes included the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the 2025 bombing of nuclear facilities. The episode details military losses: destruction of nuclear sites, weakening of air defense systems, loss of naval power, and compromised military infrastructure. This eroded Iran's ability to defend its depth and project power. A critical failure was the proxy network, with Hezbollah lacking decisive war authority and Iraqi militias remaining limited. Iran's responses, like threatening Gulf security or closing the Strait of Hormuz, are framed as tools of annoyance rather than determination. These actions may push Gulf states to enhance defenses and seek alternative energy routes. The episode draws a historical parallel to the 1967 war, where Arab regimes lost land but not immediate collapse, suggesting similar strategic defeat for Iran. It notes Iran's political transformation, specifically its acceptance of negotiations with the United States, led by figures like Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. This marks a shift from decades of ideological rejection. The analysis concludes that Iran has lost the strategic building it constructed since the 1979 Revolution, facing damaged leadership, exposed depth, weakened militias, and faded red lines. The regime persists but in a fundamentally weakened state, forced into negotiations it previously denounced.
