Iran war hikes US costs of mortgages, flights, groceries & more

March 16, 2026·11 min·1 clip

Economist Joel Berner reveals why Iran war inflation overrides the safe haven effect, pushing mortgage rates higher.

This episode examines how geopolitical conflict influences U.S. consumer costs, specifically mortgage rates and broader inflation. Host Victor interviews Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com, for expert analysis. They discuss the unexpected economic pressures emerging from the Iran conflict. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.11% for the week ending Friday, according to Freddie Mac data. This rate was just under 6% two weeks prior, marking its first dip below that threshold since 2022. Joel Berner explains that geopolitical crises typically trigger a "safe haven effect," where investors flock to bonds and interest rates fall. He states the current situation is unique because inflationary expectations are overpowering that typical effect. The war is expected to increase future prices, making money today more expensive. Berner notes mortgage rates had recently dipped below 6%, potentially heralding a strong spring buying season. Those gains have now been reversed, altering the market outlook. He contrasts the current 6.11% rate with the 6.7% rate from the same time last year. A key insight is that the fear of future inflation directly increases the cost of borrowing for home purchases today. Berner argues the stronger inflationary effect is currently overriding the traditional investor flight to safety. The episode suggests hopeful homebuyers, who had been waiting on the sidelines, face renewed financial hurdles. The analysis implies timing in the housing market is highly sensitive to international events. The conversation frames home buying as still advantageous compared to last year but less so than recent hopes. Berner indicates the anticipated strong spring market has been disrupted, pushing potential optimism further out to 2026. The tone is analytical and explanatory, breaking down complex economic mechanisms. The style is a direct interview, with the host posing practical questions to the economist. This episode would interest prospective homebuyers, real estate investors, and anyone tracking macroeconomic trends. Listeners seeking entertainment or non-financial content might find it too narrowly focused.

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Today Magz