Today in Focus · The Guardian

Is Cuba Trump’s next target?

March 26, 2026·23 min
The question is blunt: are we next? The host describes Cuba under heavy American pressure after the US attack on Iran, with Washington pushing allies such as Venezuela and Mexico to cut off oil. Fuel is rationed. Schools and offices have closed, blackouts have frightened people, and the country is trying to survive what is described as the harshest sanctions in its history. The human cost sits at the center. One voice calls the policy a form of war, saying mothers, babies, and victims are already there even without bombers over Havana. The guest is watching for sudden collapse. Cuba can look stuck in crisis for a long time, he says, until food stops reaching markets or disease arrives. Then the island has few simple ways to take the hit. Geography matters. Unlike Zimbabwe, Cuba cannot pull food across a border from South Africa if things fall apart quickly. Aid agencies are preparing, and the World Food Programme is said to be planning for food or disease shocks that could make things go bad very fast. The regime is still hard to read. Cuba's communist leadership is described as unusually opaque, with diplomats, businesspeople, and journalists struggling to know what is happening inside government. Predictions have been wrong before. The guest recalls earlier books and headlines that said Cuba was near the end, only for the system to survive another round of certainty. That history cools the panic a little. A brutal blockade does not automatically mean the six-decade regime is about to fall. The politics are moving, though. President Diaz-Canel has acknowledged talks between Washington and Havana, while Trump has spoken publicly about "taking Cuba" in language that lands as both casual and ominous.

As heard by us

A tense, grounded look at Cuba under US pressure and the fear that Trump's threats could harden into policy.

Today in Focus turns Cuba's worsening shortages into a sharp question about Trump-era pressure: is the island being pushed toward collapse, and could Washington go further?

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Why you'd press play

You want to know why Cuba is asking if it's next after Trump's rhetoric.

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