The Wealth Elevator Podcast: Real Estate, Taxes, Investing · Lane Kawaoka, PE

2026 Market Predictions: Real Estate, AI, Interest Rates, Private Equity, Energy

·1 hr 10 min·4 clips

The host opens by framing the episode as a 2026 market preview with a crystal-ball setup. He says the first part is for the predictions people came for, and the later part is for data, facts, and extra takeaways. He places the discussion in a 2025 environment shaped by AI, volatility, and tariffs. He then points to all-time highs in the markets and growing concentration risk inside major indices. The Fed’s recent rate cuts come up early, along with a more cautious tone going into 2026 as policymakers try to balance inflation with a weak labor market. That matters most to real estate investors because lower rates can ease financing pressure and support asset values. He notes that the Dow rose when the cuts were announced. He also cautions that retail investors may not feel the effect right away, even if the headlines look dramatic. The host flags a possible black swan event involving the president and the Fed, while treating it as something to watch rather than a forecast to bank on. From there he turns to AI and says a lot of the venture-side deals are really wrappers built around LLMs. He emphasizes that some applications are genuinely useful, even if the underlying model is not the whole story. The conversation stays skeptical but not dismissive. On real estate, he sounds most confident about multifamily, especially workforce housing, if the labor market softens and the economy slows. He points to a wave of new supply still coming online. He uses Phoenix as an example, where a formerly empty lot became a brand-new Class A 200-unit building with four months of free rent as a concession. That kind of concession, in his view, is a sign of where the market sits now. He expects that supply pressure to burn off over the next one to three years. He also says high rates have already slowed a lot of new building, which creates a future void in supply. That missing supply should eventually push rents and pricing higher. The broader point is simple: the market can look bipolar in the short run, but the long-term setup can still be strong. He closes by returning to the idea that investors should look back years from now and wish they had moved sooner. The episode ends on a community and onboarding pitch, plus a reminder that the material is not tax, legal, or investment advice.

As heard by us

A 2026 market preview that turns macro headlines into concrete rental-supply signals.

The episode works best when it moves past broad market talk and into the housing math that matters most to real-estate investors. It treats 2026 as a preview year, then keeps returning to the same pressure points: all-time highs, concentration risk, Fed cuts, AI, tariffs, and…

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Why you'd press play

You want a blunt 2026 read on rates, rents, AI, and the real estate cycle.

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