Trump begs allies to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but no one wants to join his war.
Novara Live hosts Michael Walker and Ash Sarkar cover the widening consequences of the US-Israeli war on Iran, focusing on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its global economic fallout.
The show opens with the economic impact: Iran has struck at least 16 ships in and around the Strait over two weeks, effectively closing a waterway that carries 15% of the world's oil supply. Oil exports from the Gulf fell by 97% after bombing began, with prices rising 50% since late February to over $100 per barrel, with some analysts projecting $200 if the closure persists. Diesel prices in the UK have risen 18 pence per litre, and urea fertilizer prices have surged just as Northern Hemisphere farmers begin spring planting, threatening global food supplies.
Trump posted on Truth Social demanding that China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK send warships to help reopen the Strait. Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt argued these countries are benefiting from the US military eliminating the Iranian threat. However, Germany, France, Japan, and the UK all declined immediate military support. British PM Keir Starmer stated the UK would not be drawn into a wider war and announced domestic measures including capping energy prices through June and 53 million pounds for vulnerable heating oil customers.
Trump responded by criticizing the UK specifically, claiming he had requested two aircraft carriers from Starmer before the war and was refused, only for the UK to offer ships after the fighting was mostly over. He also threatened NATO's future if members did not support US operations, conflating the defensive alliance's obligations with support for a war of choice.
The show covers Trump's bombing of Karg Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass. US Central Command stated all 90-plus targets were military and oil infrastructure was left intact, though Trump told NBC he might strike again "just for fun." The hosts note that Karg Island has been an obsession of Trump's since at least 1988, when he told journalist Polly Toynbee he would "do a number" on the island.
Walker and Sarkar analyze how the war may undermine Trump's tariff leverage, reasoning that allies facing oil-driven inflation and potential recession may calculate that tariff retaliation is less damaging than participating in an unpopular war.
The episode includes a segment on the drone strike that hit Dubai Airport's jet fuel storage, cancelling all flights and forcing mid-air turnarounds. The UAE reports 1,800 missiles and drones fired at its territory in a fortnight. British Airways cancelled Gulf flights through at least May. The hosts discuss whether Dubai's decades-long strategy of cultivating a safe-haven image for Western professionals and investors may be permanently damaged, particularly for long-term infrastructure investments like data centers.
Former State Department official Annelle Sheline, who resigned over US support for the Gaza war, joins to assess the situation. She argues the administration failed to anticipate entirely foreseeable consequences: Gulf state anger, the effectiveness of Iran's cheap drone arsenal against expensive US interceptors, and Iran's generational preparation for exactly this scenario. She is skeptical of New York Times reporting that Saudi Arabia encouraged Trump to keep hitting Iran, characterizing it as Israeli talking points designed to drag Saudi Arabia deeper into the conflict.
