The Sky News Business Podcast · Sky News

UK out of recession: What's next for the economy?

·25 min·1 clip

Vivek Paul says the UK has barely grown since the end of 2021 and calls that historically rare.

1. The Sky News Business Podcast episode covers the UK economy emerging from recession after the Office for National Statistics reported 0.6% GDP growth in the three months to March 2024. 2. Ian King presents the numbers and frames the episode around what the stronger-than-expected growth means for the next stage of the UK economy. 3. The episode uses comments from Vivek Paul, UK Chief Investment Strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, to test whether one strong quarter changes the wider outlook. 4. Paul says the UK economy has barely grown since the end of 2021, which he describes as rare by historical standards. 5. He warns against over-indexing on the March figure and says monthly GDP data can be volatile. 6. Paul points to weaker labour supply, poorer productivity, and high debt as structural problems still facing the UK. 7. He says the annual GDP consensus of 0.4% may be revised higher, but still likely remains below 1%. 8. Paul argues that the Bank of England’s policy picture is unlikely to change fundamentally because of the latest GDP release. 9. He notes that the Bank’s own forecasts show inflation below target toward the end of the forecast horizon. 10. Siobhan Haviland, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, says firms welcomed the GDP figures and remain cautiously optimistic. 11. Haviland says business investment is still being held back because companies are carrying the cost of inflation, a tight labour market, trade barriers, and high interest rates. 12. She says businesses are still holding on to cash rather than investing aggressively. 13. Haviland argues that government planning reform and better access to the grid could help unlock private investment. 14. She describes that policy setup as a virtuous circle in which government frameworks encourage business spending. 15. Lucien Cook, head of UK residential research at a Global Real Estate Services provider, says housing market activity has picked up. 16. Cook links that improvement to stronger consumer sentiment, better buyer confidence, and more stable mortgage conditions. 17. He says agreed sales over the last four months have been slightly above pre-pandemic levels, alongside improved mortgage approvals. 18. Cook says his house-price forecast moved from a 3% fall to about 2.5% growth in 2024 after stronger data and prospects of rate cuts. 19. The episode is presented in a live business-news format with market updates, rapid-fire company headlines, and multiple analyst interviews. 20. It will suit listeners tracking UK growth, Bank of England policy, housing, and business investment, but not people wanting a deep recession history or market trivia.

As heard by us

A brisk look at the UK's rebound and the pressure beneath it.

The piece treats the UK economy as a live question, not a settled headline. It opens on stronger than expected growth, the country coming out of recession, and the harder question of what happens next for growth and investment.

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Want the UK's rebound explained through markets, spending, and company headlines?

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

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