The Rant with Jeff Ratcliffe · Fantasy Football, FTN Media

Top Regression Candidates for the Second Half of the NFL Season

·14 min·1 clip

Why Keenan Allen's top-10 fantasy production is unsustainable due to age and crowded offense.

This episode of The Runt focuses on identifying NFL players whose fantasy football production is likely to change, for better or worse, in the season's second half. Host Jeff Ratcliffe, a prominent fantasy analyst, clarifies he's examining statistical "regression to the mean," not just poor performance. He explains that players far above or below their expected averages are due for a correction. Ratcliffe names five players primed for "downward regression," starting with Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen, whose top-10 production is deemed unsustainable due to his age and many offensive teammates. The list includes Steelers wide receiver George Pickens, currently the WR3 but reliant on red-zone targets with Diontae Johnson returning. Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson is cited for an unsustainably low 5.7 yards per target compared to his six touchdowns. The other tight end is the Giants' Dallas Goedert, whose career-high seven touchdowns are considered touchdown-dependent. Broncos running back Javonte Williams rounds out the sell-high candidates. For "upward regression," Ratcliffe believes Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson will re-enter weekly WR1 status, potentially aided by quarterback J.J. McCarthy. He notes Cardinals wide receiver Trey McBride is underproducing his expected fantasy points. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young's consistent improvement makes him an interesting case. Bengals running back Chase Brown benefits from a split backfield with Samaje Perine, keeping him fresh. Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. and quarterback Trevor Lawrence are both underperforming, with Thomas being a potential buy-low target. Ratcliffe defends Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, an apologist who believes he gets a "bum rap" and will improve as the season progresses. He also names Dolphins quarterback Cam Ward as a deep "superflex" option who could become a top-24 quarterback with more consistent play. The host stresses this analysis is about managing expectations, not just buy-low/sell-high advice, as productivity naturally fluctuates. The tone is direct, educational, and conversational, with Ratcliffe simplifying complex statistical concepts for a fantasy audience. He frequently addresses potential listener criticisms and uses specific data points, like yards per target, to support his claims. Fantasy managers looking for data-informed advice on navigating the mid-season trade deadline will find this episode invaluable. Listeners seeking entertainment-focused or narrative-driven football content might find the statistical deep-dive too niche.

As heard by us

A practical reset on which fantasy production looks real and which looks fragile.

Jeff Ratcliffe uses this episode to do what many fantasy managers need after eight weeks: clear the noise and sort out which early numbers deserve trust.

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Why you'd press play

Reset your second-half roster assumptions before November starts rewriting the standings.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

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