The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast · Rakaan Kayali

Everything is Wrong!

·31 min·2 clips

Bitcoin is now $91,980, the VIX is up 13% today, and the speaker says “everybody has it wrong.”

1. The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast episode “Everything is Wrong!” centers on Bitcoin, macro markets, and risk sentiment on Monday, November 17th. 2. The speaker, identified as Dr. Khaled in listener greetings, frames the discussion as a live market read and a disagreement with the prevailing view. 3. The episode asks whether the recent selloff means Bitcoin has topped or whether the market is misreading a bigger cycle. 4. He starts with Bitcoin at $91,980, the VIX up 13% on the day, Tesla around 409, NVIDIA around 186, and gold falling from 4,400 to 4,000. 5. He says the probability of a December rate cut has dropped from above 80% a month ago to 45%, and he ties that drop to risk-asset weakness. 6. He uses the fear-and-greed index at 17 to ask whether Bitcoin is closer to a local bottom or a local top. 7. He argues that extreme fear has lined up with local bottoms in earlier 2024 readings, while extreme greed has tended to mark local tops. 8. He then turns to short-term holder supply and says short-term holders are selling into losses. 9. He describes short-term holders as the worst-performing holder group and treats their behavior as a contraindicator. 10. He challenges the idea that Bitcoin has divorced from money supply and says PMI is the missing relationship. 11. He says the U.S. economy has been in contraction territory below 50 on PMI for about two years and that Bitcoin and PMI have shown strong directional correlation. 12. He argues that money supply and PMI together will act as tailwinds for Bitcoin, especially if PMI moves into expansion. 13. He connects that view to the year of U.S. midterm elections and says political incentives favor a healthy Q1 and Q2. 14. He says previous bull markets were defined by PMI above 50, not only by the Bitcoin halving. 15. He argues halvings matter less now because block rewards are smaller and the market is more institution-driven. 16. He points to the first U.S. Bitcoin ETF, later ETFs, digital asset treasuries, and corporate and sovereign adoption as reasons Bitcoin rose during contraction. 17. He adds that quantitative tightening ends on December 1 and says the market may later move into quantitative easing after a lag of three or four months. 18. The tone is a live market commentary mixed with listener Q&A, with repeated disclaimers that the speaker does not know the future. 19. People who follow Bitcoin, macro data, and Islamic finance market commentary would get the most out of it. 20. People looking for a tightly edited story or no market speculation may skip it.

As heard by us

A blunt market read that ties Bitcoin, PMI, and the ETF era into one thesis.

The episode reads like a steady market note for listeners trying not to panic. It starts with Bitcoin at 91,980 and the VIX up 13 percent, then moves from the urge to sell into a simple counterpoint: the bigger setup may still favor Bitcoin if PMI climbs back above 50.

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Why you'd press play

Hear the case for buying when everyone else wants out.

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