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The NZ Property Market Podcast · Cotality NZ

March HVI: A line in the sand?

April 7, 2026·29 min·2 clips
Nick Goodall warns that falling confidence and fuel shortages could push New Zealand back into recession.
The headline mood is flat, and that feels like the point. Nick Goodall and Calvin Davidson look at the property market through fresh uncertainty: confidence measures are down, fuel disruption risk is hanging over the economy, and recession talk is back in the room. Their read is careful. Inflation pressure is already here, but it may run into weaker activity instead of moving in a straight line. If disruption drags on, shortages and rationing could push prices up. If recession type conditions build, demand could cool. Neither path gives the Reserve Bank a tidy call. Even a quick end to the disruption would still leave damaged production facilities and delayed repairs to work through the system. The practical question is what market signals can still be trusted during another macro shock. Unemployment gets time here too, with Nick wanting to press on job loss forecasts because slower growth does not automatically explain the labour market. The episode works best when it lets the caveats stay messy. No grand prediction, just a useful working conversation about whether confidence can find firmer ground while the economy risks slipping backward. The close keeps that tone. They ask listeners what data might give the market a faster read, which suits an episode more interested in usable signals than neat slogans.

As heard by us

A clear read on how inflation, weak confidence, and fuel risks may shape property thinking.

The episode reads New Zealand property through the strain of the wider economy. Inflation is already higher, confidence among consumers and businesses has slipped, and the talk keeps circling back to fuel shortages and the chance they could push recession risk higher.

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Why you'd press play

You want the cautious recession-risk read on New Zealand property.

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