Runoffs, voting mishaps and Trump endorsements in TX and NC primaries

March 4, 2026·26 min·2 clips

Roy Cooper pitches himself as a strong independent who will work with Trump when he can and stand up when needed.

The midterms have started. Taped at 1:09 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, March 4, the conversation uses Arkansas, Texas, and North Carolina as the cycle's first real clues. The mood is interested, but not breathless. North Carolina comes first, where Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Watley win primaries for the open seat created by Tom Tillis retiring. Texas takes up more room. Ashley Lopez talks through why James Tallarico would have plenty to work with against a Republican opponent carrying weaknesses, then adds the part that keeps the race grounded: incumbency still counts, and Cornyn still has it. The panel spends time on how different Texas might feel if Democrats face a newer Republican figure instead of a long-set incumbent. Then comes the cold water. Domenico Montanaro notes that no Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994, even though a few have come close enough to keep Democrats looking back at the map and thinking, maybe. The football analogy works because it captures the whole mood. Texas Democratic optimism makes sense, and Texas keeps punishing it. Demography is the reason the question refuses to die. The state is described as majority-minority and more diverse, with Latino, African-American, and Indian American communities all part of the long-term argument. But population change has not beaten the Republican power structure yet. Jasmine Crockett comes in later, with her national profile and social media reach set beside the more practical question of what Democratic primary voters want in a Senate candidate. The panel closes on the voters who showed up, suggesting that a message built around putting Democrats in a better November position carried the day.

As heard by us

A careful first look at opening primary night, with Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas in play.

The episode offers a brisk first look at opening primary night, with the panel sorting through results in North Carolina, Texas, and Arkansas while teasing apart symbolism and signal.

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Why you'd press play

You want the first real read on the opening primaries in Texas and North Carolina.

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