Dorsey Wright's Podcast 1032 - Charts of the Week: Historical Declines, Sector Dispersions, Up vs Down Days, & NVDA.

·29 min·2 clips

Analyst Trevor Poleska shows a 15% S&P drawdown occurs in every 10-year period, putting current fears in context.

The episode begins with hosts Ian Saunders and Myles Clark reflecting on the eventful start to the year and market movements. They highlight top-performing assets like gold, silver, and emerging markets, contrasting with domestic equities. Analyst Trevor Poleska's piece on historical S&P 500 drawdowns is discussed, noting that a 15% pullback occurs in every 10-year period and a 25% drawdown would only erase gains from the last 10 months. The hosts examine the annual percent of 1% daily moves in the S&P, noting six trading days with a bias toward downside days this year. Sector dispersion is analyzed, revealing a 30% gap between XLE (energy) and XLF (financials), the highest opening-year spread since 1999. International equities, particularly emerging markets, have overtaken domestic equities in Dorsey Wright rankings, with a 6.5% relative strength chart showing a reversal for the first time since 1999. NVIDIA's price action is reviewed, showing consolidation since August 2023, with support at $180 and resistance at $196. The episode emphasizes using relative strength and technical analysis to navigate market rotations and consolidation periods.

As heard by us

A disciplined read on drawdowns, dispersion, and what relative strength still allows.

The piece follows a market that has opened the year unevenly: gold and precious metals keep grinding ahead, while many individual stocks still show downside and the gap between XLE and XLF has widened sharply.

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Why you'd press play

For when XLE and XLF start behaving like they live on different planets.

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