How to pick a suburb ripe for booming house prices

·51 min·5 clips

Why are investors flocking to the cheapest properties and driving prices up 50% faster?

Julianne Sprague, Wealth Editor at The Australian, hosts property expert Ben Kingsley, Chair of the Property Investors Council of Australia, to decode how investors can identify suburbs poised for strong capital growth. Kingsley brings over 25 years of experience and co-hosts the Property Couch podcast. The conversation focuses on the analytical framework for selecting high-potential investment locations within broader bullish market predictions. Kingsley breaks his methodology into short-term drivers, like supply-demand imbalances, and medium-term fundamentals, primarily local economic activity. He details specific short-term indicators, including auction clearance rates above 70%, declining days on market, and low stock on market. For medium-term analysis, he emphasizes the need for strong job growth and population inflows driven by a thriving local economy. He references Melbourne's economic struggles during the 1990s under Premiers John Cain and Joan Kirner as a historical example of how poor economic conditions stifle property markets. A surprising insight is Kingsley's concern over "animal spirits" and speculative fever in the affordable property quartile, which he believes is being artificially inflated. He warns that expanded first home buyer schemes and APRA's lending buffers are funneling excessive demand into this entry-level segment. Kingsley reveals he scores every Australian suburb out of 100 based on aggregated data variables to quantify supply-demand imbalances. He argues investors should be "price takers" in markets grounded by owner-occupier demand, not speculative investor activity, to avoid buying at a peak. He expresses significant worry about social media "spruikers" promoting rapid wealth through trust structures and SMSF lending, calling it an "emergent risk" for financial stability. Kingsley states that investment lending is currently growing three to four times faster than owner-occupier lending, a dangerous imbalance. He advocates for regulatory crackdowns on trust lending and unlicensed advice to protect first-home buyers from potential negative equity. His top market picks for the near term are Darwin, due to a severe supply shortage and new pro-business government, and Perth, for its strong economic fundamentals and livability. The tone is educational and conversational, with Sprague posing practical listener questions to ground Kingsley's strategic advice. The style is advisory but carries a warning undertone about current market excesses. This episode is ideal for prospective or current property investors seeking a disciplined, data-driven approach to location selection. Listeners wanting simple "hot spot" tips or those uncomfortable with critical warnings about market speculation might find it less appealing.

As heard by us

A focused suburb selection discussion that cuts through housing hype with a clearer investing lens.

This episode keeps its focus on one plain question: how to pick the suburb that is most likely to deliver a strong return, without pretending every rising city behaves the same way.

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Why you'd press play

Before you buy the next investment property, listen for the suburb filter that actually matters.

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