The Market Huddle · Patrick Ceresna & Kevin Muir

Post-Election Market Outlook (guest: Tony Greer)

·28 min·2 clips

Tony Greer explains how tech sectors broke out as Trump took the lead, signaling early market bets.

1. The Market Huddle Plus episode features Patrick Ceresna interviewing Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, for a post-election market outlook covering sector breakouts, pharma breakdown, energy, gold, and uranium. 2. Tony Greer runs TG Macro and co-hosts the Jared Dillian podcast; he is described by Ceresna as one of the show's favorite guests and a fellow chart technician. 3. The episode's thesis is that the Trump election created a cluster of breakout trades — some pre-signaled in October — and the question is which are sustainable versus faded. 4. Greer notes that in the first week of October 2024, three technology subsectors — software, cybersecurity, and cloud computing — simultaneously broke out of long consolidations, coinciding with Trump taking the lead on Polymarket. 5. Bitcoin also broke out of an approximately eight-month consolidation in mid-to-late October, which Greer describes as markets 'telegraphing' the election outcome before the vote. 6. Goldman Sachs gapped to $500 on the first post-election trading day, which Greer calls 'insane' and frames as the market signaling massive financial industry benefits from Trump's deal-making and reshoring policy agenda. 7. Broker-dealers (IAI ETF) have closed the gap on semiconductors — which were up 48% year-to-date — and are now essentially tied as the best-performing sector of the year. 8. The day after Trump's election win saw $22 billion in ETF inflows — approximately equivalent to a good full week of inflows — which Greer uses as evidence that sidelined cash is positioned to buy pullbacks in all breakout sectors. 9. Pfizer broke to a fresh 52-week low following Robert Kennedy Jr.'s appointment to lead a health agency, a move Greer calls a 'serious breakdown entering a new range,' with the entire pharma and biotech space broadly selling off. 10. Greer says healthcare is a 'no-go zone' for now but will watch for a false breakdown as a potential long signal: if the breakdown reverses, he says he would buy it 'faster than your head will spin' despite personally hating the company. 11. XLE (energy sector ETF) gapped higher on Trump's win despite crude oil charts remaining weak, reflecting the market's enthusiasm for Chris Wright's appointment as energy secretary. 12. Greer describes Chris Wright as one of Trump's most important cabinet picks: a figure with a resume spanning shale development, a small modular nuclear reactor company, and a published 10-principle energy policy paper that treats fossil fuels as wildly efficient rather than harmful. 13. Greer argues that sectors consolidating for three to four years on a policy-scale catalyst breakout can sustain rallies of comparable duration — making XLE's four-year range a setup for a potential four-year bull trend. 14. Energy sector sentiment is at a consensus negative extreme, with widespread expectations for oil at $40 and energy stocks as dead money — a condition Greer says means sellers have already exited and the next marginal move is up. 15. Defense contractors (ITA) have been in a bull trend since breaking out at end of 2023 after consolidating through 2021-2023; Greer says he will not fade this unless lobbying is outlawed, but declines to hold it personally. 16. Gold broke above $1,800 definitively this year and pulled back to the 100-day moving average in an orderly correction; Greer is long physical gold and trades it from the long side in his newsletter as a 'death of fiat currency' trade. 17. Greer refuses to trade gold miners because they are poorly correlated to gold performance and add CEO and operational risks he does not want; he prefers 2x leveraged gold over 1x miner exposure. 18. Uranium broke out on the Microsoft-Three Mile Island nuclear power deal headline, pulled back to the breakout level, and Greer views this as a textbook reaction-pullback-resumption setup for a continued 'nuclear acceptance trade.' 19. The episode is a fast-paced chart walk for an experienced technical trading audience; Greer references specific ETF tickers (IAI, XLE, OIH, ITA, URA, SRUUF) and price levels throughout. 20. Investors interested in tactical sector rotation and chart-driven entry points around the Trump election will find this directly useful; those seeking macro fundamentals without technical entry logic will find limited value.

As heard by us

A sharp post-election market read that turns sector moves into a useful test of what lasts.

The episode treats the election less like a political turning point and more like a market reset. After a stretch of anxiety, hedging, and shaky sector calls, it catches the shift in tone cleanly, with Patrick Ceresna and Tony Greer keeping the attention on how the S&P moved…

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Want a chart-heavy read on the post-election market rip?

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