The Lawfare Podcast · The Lawfare Institute

Lawfare Daily: The State of Syria, with Charles Lister

March 13, 2026·59 min·5 clips

Arab tribes flipped in 12 hours, causing 80% of SDF territory to fall to government control almost without a bullet fired.

Scott R. Anderson hosts Charles Lister, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, on the Lawfare Podcast to analyze Syria's transformation since the Assad regime's collapse in December 2024. The discussion covers the transitional government's first year, the military conflict with the SDF, the resulting integration agreement, and the shifting roles of Turkey and the United States. Lister characterizes 2025 as Syria's "coming out from the cold" year, focused primarily on foreign policy. Despite the unusual nature of a transitional government led by Ahmad al-Shara, a former al-Qaeda commander, Syria achieved international legitimacy far beyond expectations within 12 months, including Oval Office meetings and addresses to the UN General Assembly. Nearly 90% of the population still lives below the poverty line, making economic recovery the critical challenge for 2026. The SDF controlled approximately 25% of Syrian territory and about 80% of the country's natural resources. U.S.-mediated negotiations throughout 2025 aimed at peaceful integration but repeatedly missed deadlines in August, October, and December. While a framework agreement was reached around the table, the SDF refused to publicly endorse it due to internal politics. Meanwhile, tensions escalated between Arab communities under SDF rule and the predominantly Kurdish SDF leadership; over 800 Arab men were arrested simply for having photos of Ahmad al-Shara on their phones. The Syrian government quietly built leverage by appointing a presidential envoy to the tribes who secured pledges of allegiance from Arab tribal leaders across SDF territory. When fighting broke out in January 2026 over two Aleppo districts where the SDF had allegedly maintained heavy weapons in violation of a prior agreement, the government was confident of the outcome. Once conflict spread to core SDF areas, Arab tribes flipped within 12 hours, and 75-80% of SDF territory changed to government control almost without casualties. The resulting integration agreement dissolves the SDF into state structures. Four military brigades staffed entirely by former SDF fighters are being established under the Ministry of Defense. The SDF's local police force, the Asayish, is being folded into the Ministry of Interior with joint checkpoints in sensitive areas. Health facilities in Kurdish areas have been placed under the Ministry of Health, and the education curriculum is being translated into Kurdish. Senior appointments include a former SDF official as governor of Hasake and a PKK veteran as military commander of eastern Syria, though both appointments have triggered protests from Arab communities. Turkey's posture was shaped by its domestic peace process with the PKK, which made continued hostility toward the SDF counterproductive. Turkey likely provided ISR support and strategic guidance to the Syrian government during the January conflict but wanted it short and sharp to avoid derailing the PKK talks. The outcome gave Turkey what it wanted: a significantly weakened SDF integrated into a state with which Turkey has a strong relationship. The United States' role shifted from its SDF partnership toward a government-to-government relationship with Damascus. CENTCOM effectively took on diplomatic functions during the early Trump administration transition period. A pivotal test came when the U.S. provided intelligence on an Iranian-linked weapons smuggling network near the Iraqi border, and Syrian Ministry of Interior forces dismantled the entire network within 24 hours. A new Damascus Coordination Center now operates from the Operation Inherent Resolve headquarters in Iraq, with Syrian military officers present, serving as the framework for ongoing U.S.-Syria security cooperation.

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