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Lawfare Daily: How Two Intelligence Community Veterans View the Iran Conflict, with Chip Usher and Aaron Faust

March 27, 2026·58 min·5 clips

Chip Usher reveals the stark gap between successful military strikes and unclear U.S. strategic goals in Iran.

Host Scott R. Anderson convenes CIA veteran Chip Usher and former State Department Iran division chief Aaron Faust to analyze the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Aaron opens by outlining Iran's multifaceted threat to U.S. interests: proxy attacks that have killed Americans from the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing through Iraq War IEDs, direct targeting of officials involved in the Qasem Soleimani killing, ballistic missile and nuclear program development, threats to Gulf allies' energy infrastructure, and technology proliferation to Russia for use in Ukraine. The conversation traces the administration's approach from the limited Operation Bend-A-Hammer strikes last summer, which narrowly targeted nuclear facilities, to the much broader campaign launched in late February 2026. Chip attributes the shift to a recalibration following Iran's massive January 2026 protests, which the regime suppressed by killing an estimated 7,000 to 30,000 citizens, suggesting the administration saw an opportunity for broader destabilization. The stated objectives on WhiteHouse.gov include total destruction of Iran's nuclear program, obliteration of its missile program, destruction of its navy, and severing proxy networks. Aaron argues these maximalist goals require either regime change or ground invasion, neither of which the administration has prepared for, creating a gap between political objectives and military means. Both analysts discuss the intelligence community likely warning about Iran's ideological depth, with Chip estimating 10 to 15 percent of the 90-million population as hard regime supporters who control the military and IRGC. Aaron explains that Iran is not a personalized dictatorship but a regime of overlapping institutions with a deep bench of leaders forged in the Iran-Iraq war, making decapitation ineffective. The regime has pushed authority down to governorate-level police and military, allowing continued function despite leadership losses. On horizontal escalation, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz using drones, missiles, and fast attack boats despite having its conventional navy destroyed. Chip notes that while the air campaign has been tactically brilliant in degrading conventional capabilities, Iran retains asymmetric options including drones, cruise missiles, cyber attacks, and terrorism. Two major threats have not yet materialized: Iranian-directed terrorist attacks against civilian targets in the U.S. or Europe, and a concerted Houthi military response from Yemen. Iran has also demonstrated medium-range ballistic missile capability by striking at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, with the same range ring covering half of Europe. The economic consequences are mounting as the strait closure affects 20 percent of global oil supplies, critical LNG shipments, and 30 percent of global ultra-pure helium needed for semiconductor manufacturing. Countries like the Philippines and South Korea are already imposing energy conservation measures. Chip describes multiple scenarios for reopening the strait, from forcible seizure of Kharg Island to negotiated reopening, warning that Iran's survival-equals-victory mentality means even a degraded Iran emerges more committed to rearming and potentially reconsidering its nuclear weapons stance. The analysts agree that the campaign has achieved significant tactical degradation but faces strategic drift without clear political objectives or an achievable endgame.

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