The Lawfare Podcast · The Lawfare Institute

Lawfare Daily: Are We Going to War in Iran?

February 25, 2026·49 min·4 clips

Eric Brewer warns that Iran is negotiating with a gun to its head as U.S. demands keep shifting.

Benjamin Wittes hosts Ari Tabatabai (Lawfare public service fellow) and Eric Brewer (Nuclear Threat Initiative) to assess the escalating U.S.-Iran situation. Tabatabai notes the military buildup, including naval, air, and operational support assets, goes beyond the posture for Midnight Hammer, the summer 2025 operation that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities. She identifies two tracks: a military track suggesting a multi-day campaign rather than a quick strike, and a diplomatic track where Steve Witkoff continues negotiations. The administration stated goals remain unclear, with different officials giving different demands. Secretary Rubio has listed four requirements (end proxies, missiles, nuclear program), while Witkoff mentioned only enrichment and nuclear material in a recent interview. Brewer explains that the counterproliferation value of further strikes is relatively low since Midnight Hammer already took Iran major enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow offline. Iran 60 percent enriched uranium is likely stored in tunnels impenetrable by U.S. munitions. Iran has focused its reconstitution efforts on its missile program rather than nuclear capabilities. The discussion turns to whether the nuclear negotiations should be separated from Iran violent suppression of protests that killed tens of thousands of people. Both guests previously supported siloing the nuclear issue during JCPOA negotiations but argue conditions have changed: Iran nuclear program has advanced beyond what the original JCPOA could address, the IAEA has had drastically reduced access since 2025, and the regime has irreversibly lost domestic legitimacy. Brewer warns that sanctions relief in a nuclear deal would provide an economic lifeline to a regime that just massacred its own citizens. On military strategy, Tabatabai cautions that historical precedent, including the Iran-Iraq War, shows that attacking a country during domestic upheaval does not necessarily produce quick victories and can rally nationalist sentiment. Brewer adds that Iran is signaling it would treat any strike as full-blown war to deter action, though he considers this bluff not fully credible. Both analysts note the civilian side of the Department of Defense appears absent from planning conversations, with only the chairman of the Joint Chiefs present. The State Department bureau that traditionally supports nuclear negotiations was significantly reduced in a recent reorganization.

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