The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network · The Investor's Podcast Network

TIVP026: The Intrinsic Value Portfolio: Mid-Year Review w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley

·1 hr 41 min·5 clips

Ulta's loyalty program drives 95% of sales, with 76% of members shopping solely in-person for expert advice.

Having covered 25 companies in depth over roughly six months, Daniel and Shawn pause from new pitches to review their actual portfolio. They discuss their investment philosophy: seeking asset-light, scalable businesses with strong moats, often trading at reduced valuations due to perceived disruption risk. Ulta Beauty, originally a 7% position at around $400 average buy-in, was trimmed to 5% after strong earnings; the hosts frame it as rebalancing conviction. The Ulta thesis centers on its in-store experience with beauty professionals and product testing, its loyalty program generating 95% of sales, and its dual mass and prestige product mix providing economic cycle resilience. They argue Amazon's AI shopping assistant Rufus cannot replicate what Ulta offers in person. The financial picture improved: revenue grew 4.5%, comparable store sales rose, and the lipstick effect played out. On Alphabet, Adobe, and Uber, the hosts argue these three companies trade cheaply because of AI or autonomous vehicle disruption fears, and their thesis is that all three are actually net beneficiaries: Alphabet for its AI capabilities, Adobe for its creative AI tools built on its own IP, and Uber for its data advantage relative to autonomous vehicle competitors. The episode provides an educational framework for how investors can construct and monitor a focused long-term portfolio without chasing every new idea.

As heard by us

A steady portfolio check that revisits old holdings through disruption and valuation questions.

This review stays on the practical question: whether a thesis still holds after the market has moved. The hosts revisit current holdings, explain why each position was added, and test what has changed since the first pass.

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Why you'd press play

You want a sober portfolio check on whether your stock thesis still survives contact with the market.

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