The Inquiry · BBC World Service

Is the revolution in Cuba over?

March 21, 2026·24 min·1 clip

Renata Segura of the International Crisis Group says Cuba is at its weakest point since 1959, with fuel costing over $300 to fill a tank — more than most Cubans earn annually.

The question is stark. Tanya Beckett places Cuba next to Florida, close enough to feel nearby, yet still shaped by its long effort to keep distance from US power. Now the pressure is harder to dodge. The island has leaned on Venezuelan oil for a quarter of a century, and US enforcement against fuel shipments has made the energy squeeze worse. Blackouts are more common. Fuel shortages, unreliable electricity, and prices that keep outrunning many households bring the crisis into ordinary life. Then the episode turns to the economy. A Washington-based economist describes COVID as a shock that hit both national finances and daily routines. Tourism mattered in many towns. Families and small businesses depended on visitors for services, goods, and cash that helped household budgets work. That income fell hard. International arrivals dropped by almost three-quarters in 2020, then by another two-fifths in 2021, and never climbed back to pre-COVID levels. Cuba also depends heavily on sea imports, so broken supply chains and high shipping costs fed through the island. Policy added another jolt. The government tried to end the dual currency system at a terrible moment. The expert says the starting exchange rate was unrealistic and overvalued, so prices jumped once the change landed. By early 2025, state employees, pensioners, and families already hurt by lost tourism income were facing inflation, food-price spikes, and shortages.

As heard by us

A sober account of how Cuba's crisis became economic, political and deeply human.

Cuba's crisis is framed as a set of pressures that have piled up over time: fuel shortages, blackouts, a long dependence on Venezuelan oil, and the United States' de facto blockade on fuel shipments.

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For a clear-eyed look at why Cuba's crisis keeps worsening, press play.

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