The Global Demons Podcast: Pandemics, Cyberattacks, and Other Terrors in the New Age · Foreign Policy Research Instit

The China Threat and U.S. Defense Strategies

·29 min·2 clips

Robert Kaplan asks how pandemics and cyberattacks will shape conflicts between the U.S., China, and Russia.

This episode features Robert Kaplan of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and his guest, Elbridge Colby, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense who co-authored the 2018 National Defense Strategy. They examine the nature of U.S.-China strategic competition and the formulation of American defense policy. Kaplan frames the discussion around how traditional great-power rivalry interacts with modern "global demons" like pandemics and cyberattacks. Colby defines a good defense strategy as one that credibly deters adversaries from aggression by making the costs prohibitively high. He argues the current U.S. defense strategy is unfocused, attempting to counter China, Russia, Iran, and terrorism simultaneously without sufficient resources. The conversation centers on China as the "pacing challenge," with Colby emphasizing the strategic importance of Taiwan and the First Island Chain. He references the Pentagon's war games, which often project significant U.S. losses in a Taiwan conflict scenario under current strategies. A key insight is Colby's advocacy for a strategy of "denial," aiming to make a Chinese invasion of Taiwan so costly and unlikely to succeed that Beijing never attempts it. He critiques the alternative strategy of "punishment," which relies on retaliatory strikes after an invasion begins, as being less reliable for deterrence. Colby suggests reallocating resources from other global commitments to concentrate military power in the Indo-Pacific, specifically for air and naval dominance. He expresses concern that without a clear, credible deterrent, China might perceive an opportunity for a fait accompli against Taiwan. The dialogue references historical strategic concepts, drawing parallels to Cold War-era deterrence frameworks while adapting them for a new technological and geopolitical context. Colby implies that effective strategy requires difficult trade-offs, potentially accepting more risk in theaters like Europe or the Middle East to prioritize the Indo-Pacific. The tone is analytical and policy-focused, grounded in the guest's experience in defense planning. The style is a conversational interview between two well-informed experts, leaning heavily on strategic theory and military logistics. Listeners interested in granular defense policy, military strategy, and Sino-American relations will find this episode substantive. Those seeking a broader discussion of diplomacy, economics, or cultural aspects of the rivalry might find its narrow military focus less engaging.

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