Just Press The Deflation Button! (with Catherine Rampell)

November 29, 2025·52 min·4 clips

Economist Catherine Rampell explains why Trump's promise to lower prices was never achievable — deflation only happens in economic collapse.

The episode opens at Thanksgiving weekend with host Sarah Longwell noting Trump's approval rating is 21 points underwater on the economy, citing Nate Silver's aggregator. Guest Catherine Rampell, economics editor at The Bulwark, joins after participating in Longwell's focus group sessions. Rampell observes that the Trump administration has repeated the same messaging failure Democrats made under Biden: denying or downplaying consumer pain rather than acknowledging it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins are cited as examples of officials saying simultaneously that they won't tell people how to feel while insisting the economy is better than people say. Rampell distinguishes between factors outside Trump's control — drought-driven coffee prices, a screwworm outbreak in Mexico affecting beef supply — and tariff-driven price increases that are directly attributable to his policies. She notes voters know about tariffs because Trump talks about them constantly, so he accrues blame beyond what he strictly deserves. Focus group audio features 2020-and-2024 Trump loyalists who are frustrated but still hopeful, citing slow progress on gas prices, housing unaffordability, and job market uncertainty. A second set of audio features Biden-to-Trump flippers who are more openly disappointed, with one voter giving Trump an F grade and listing broken promises on grocery prices, unemployment, and DOGE layoffs. Rampell's central analytical point is that no president can actually lower the aggregate price level — deflation of that kind only occurs in severe economic downturns like the 1930s or 1990s Japan. She argues Trump set an impossible standard for himself and that voters will be disappointed regardless of other economic progress. Longwell describes a category of die-hard Trump supporters who will not change their view no matter the economic conditions, contrasted with swing voters who voted for him purely on economic expectations. Rampell frames a structural political problem: both parties overpromise on inflation and affordability, leading to a doom loop where voters throw out incumbents, the new party also fails to deliver, and the cycle repeats. She says breaking this cycle would require politicians to temper expectations honestly, which is not a winning electoral message. Longwell proposes that job creation — specifically direct public-sector hiring of teachers, nurses, and social workers — could be a more achievable Democratic pitch. Rampell pushes back that traditional presidential job-creation messaging focuses on creating incentives for private sector hiring rather than direct government employment. She introduces the concept of supply-side progressivism — policies like universal childcare that make it easier for workers, particularly mothers, to participate in the labor force. New Mexico's announcement of universal childcare and New York City's effort are cited as examples. The Biden CHIPS Act is mentioned as an example of industrial policy that created manufacturing jobs but carries the risk of government making wrong technology bets. Rampell argues that economic structures and incentives are generally more durable than direct government hiring and that markets allocate capital through something like natural selection. A final voter audio segment features more optimistic Trump supporters who project future improvement while acknowledging current prices are still high, with one California voter describing $5.15-per-gallon gas and $15 pet meals at an Erewhon-style pet food store.

As heard by us

Holiday-week voter clips make the economy feel immediate, messy, and politically sharp.

The episode treats the economy as something people feel in the grocery aisle and at the kitchen table, not as a clean data point. Sarah Longwell and Catherine Rampell tie that pressure to Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekend, Trump being 15 points underwater overall and 21…

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Why you'd press play

You want the mood behind the economy, not another inflation graf.

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