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Private Credit Warning Signs and Oil Market Turbulence - Mid-Week Macro 11th March

·35 min·1 clip

JP Morgan is restricting private credit lending—here's what that actually means for your investments

The clock matters here. The host opens from Wednesday, March 11, at 4.20 Eastern, with a correction on the free asset confidentiality webinar. He owns the mistake. The US clocks had moved forward, so the webinar is restated for Friday, March 13, at 10 o'clock Eastern. From there, the market note gets going. Oil is the working case for why refining difficulty, geopolitical risk, and long run demand can make tidy forecasts look too neat. Venezuelan oil gets caveated fast. Iranian oil is treated as easier to work with, which matters because not every barrel solves the same problem. The IEA demand view takes the hit. The host thinks long run oil demand sits well above the IEA's call, especially if inflation pressure and stagflation stay in the frame. Stagflation is the warning lens. Weak economies and rising prices are tied back to the 70s, though he leaves room for listeners who think the repeat is already underway. Traders do not get an easy setup. He says he has no useful oil trading setup now, even while expecting a meaningful move lower at some point this year. That lower move is the thing to watch. If it shows up, going long could get interesting, but he is not forcing it. Geopolitics hang over the whole read. Iran, the USA, and Israel are treated as big reasons oil and European natural gas have moved higher. The Permian also stays in the picture. A crude build and a dip in US production get flagged as supporting details, with listeners pointed back to his Permian Basin comments. Then silver takes over, with Jane Street's role in the SLV ETF, manipulation talk, and spoofing turning into another case where market plumbing meets suspicion.

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