The Automotive Leaders Podcast · Jan Griffiths

IEEPA Struck Down — Why the Tariff Pressure Remains

·34 min·2 clips

Liquidation usually comes about 300 days after entry, and a 180-day protest window follows once it passes.

1. The Automotive Leaders Podcast republishes the Serif IEEPA Tariff Revocation Impact Webinar of February 20, held the day the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs. 2. Ambrose Conroy and Harrison Calland of Serif are joined by Jan Griffiths, who draws on a career in supply chain sourcing, to discuss what the ruling means for automotive companies. 3. The central thesis is that the ruling changed the legal mechanism but not the pressure, with Conroy's view that "my bet is that tariffs are going to stay in place" and companies must function as if they are. 4. Calland shows the net tariff rate falling from about 15% to roughly 8% and then rebounding to around 13% under the 15% Section 122 tariff, with China and Brazil as relative winners and Germany, Italy and France stuck at the blanket 15%. 5. Conroy lists the administration's options: Congress (which he calls unlikely), untested Section 338 tariffs on countries "discriminating" against the U.S., renewed 150-day Section 122 tariffs, and Section 232 and 301 tariffs as the least challengeable route. 6. On refunds, the speakers describe entry date, a liquidation date about 300 days later with a post-summary correction window, and a 180-day protest period, and advise using both a trade expert and a legal expert. 7. Calland cites a 1990s harbor maintenance fee case that involved about $1 billion in refunds and took roughly three years to set up a procedure, compared with $165 billion for IEEPA, so refunds could take "five plus years." 8. Conroy argues that a possible Chinese move on Taiwan (2027 in U.S. planning, 2030 in EU planning) is a reason to leave China regardless of tariffs, and mentions finding qualified CNC operators within days in Adelaide, Australia. 9. Conroy predicts that "USMCA, as we know it today, will not stand past" July 2026 and expects Section 338 tariffs to be tested against China and possibly Mexico by mid-March. 10. Supply chain, procurement and finance leaders in automotive and other tariff-exposed industries would get the most from this episode.

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