Space Weather Woman Forecasts and News · Dr. Tamitha Skov

An Earth-Directed Mini-Storm & More Flares Possible | Space Weather MidWeek 10 February 2026

·13 min

1. Space Weather Woman Forecasts and News examines February 10, 2026 conditions, including a small Earth-directed storm and continuing flare activity. 2. Dr. Tamatha Scove, the show's host and forecast presenter, translates solar imagery, NOAA probabilities, and radio-impact models for operators, responders, aviators, and aurora photographers. 3. The episode's central forecast is that conditions are calmer than last week but remain active because region 4366 is fading while new regions rotate into Earth view. 4. Region 4366 continues producing flares, with R1-level and possible R2-level radio blackouts affecting amateur radio operators and emergency responders for another two or three days. 5. A small eruption from region 4371 launched an Earth-directed solar storm that could reach Earth on February 12 or Friday the 13th. 6. Regions 4341 and 4342 are rotating in from the east limb after producing major flares and storms during their previous rotation, and connected coronal loops suggest they may fire together. 7. NOAA's outlook gives a 65% chance of M-class flares, a 25% chance of X-class flares, and severe dayside radio noise that should moderate over several days. 8. Aurora prospects remain strongest at high latitudes, with a 10% chance of a major storm and a separate 10% chance of a minor storm during the Thursday-to-Friday period. 9. Solar flux is near 165, while GPS and GNSS conditions should remain mostly manageable except near night-side storm areas, dawn, and dusk. 10. Best suited to amateur radio operators, aurora photographers, aviators, and space-weather followers.

As heard by us

A practical forecast for a Sun that has eased since last week, but still deserves attention.

Space weather has eased from last week, though the Earth-facing Sun still has some bite. Region 4366 continues to throw medium-sized flares as it turns toward the far side, so R1 to R2 radio blackouts remain possible, with R1 the more likely outcome.

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Why you'd press play

You want to know whether this week's flares mean radio trouble, modest aurora chances, or mostly steady GPS.

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