04/03/2026 - Medio Oriente in fiamme, la guerra in Iran e i rischi dopo l'aggressione Usa-Israele

·30 min·2 clips

Professor Diego Abenante explains the US-Israel attack on Iran that unexpectedly widened the conflict across the Middle East.

1. 'Sotto la lente' host Marta Rizzi interviews Diego Abenante, professor of history of Asia at the University of Trieste, about the US-Israel attack on Iran. 2. Abenante warns at the outset that the scenario is rapidly evolving and the interview represents an instantaneous reading rather than a settled analysis. 3. The central question is whether the US-Israel attack has opened a broader conflict and whether the stated objectives are coherent or achievable. 4. Iran responded to the US-Israel attack by striking Gulf states—especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE—as US allies, a departure from its recent pattern of limited counter-responses that Abenante says surprised even Washington. 5. The White House's stated goals have shifted among regime change, degradation of Iranian military power, and halting the nuclear program—three objectives Abenante characterizes as 'very different from each other,' making it difficult to assess success or failure. 6. The attack occurred during active nuclear negotiations that independent European and Middle Eastern observers said had produced positive signals; Iran had not yet reached the technical level sufficient to assemble a nuclear bomb at the time of the attack. 7. Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement in 2018, despite European Union confirmation that Iran was in compliance; Abenante cites this as necessary context for understanding current Iranian distrust of negotiations. 8. Israel's goals appear clearer to Abenante: using the 'window of opportunity' created by Russian weakness—which has historically protected Syria and Iran—to permanently weaken regional adversaries, having already reduced Syrian influence. 9. Abenante says even Israel appears surprised by the force of the Iranian response and is not necessarily seeking a generalized conflict, which he describes as a 'catastrophic prospect' that could already be unfolding in the interview's timeframe. 10. The attack is perceived by Shi'ite Muslims globally—not only in the Middle East—as an attack of a religious nature, generating mass protests in Pakistan and India, which together constitute the world's largest Shi'ite population after Iran and Iraq. 11. Pakistan faces a particular dilemma: it has close ties with Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Gulf states but also a Shi'ite minority of 15-20% whose political sensitivities constrain Pakistani foreign policy. 12. Pakistan's simultaneous bombing of Taliban-linked targets in Afghanistan adds another instability layer, driven by the Pakistani Taliban's attacks on Pakistani military and civilian institutions, while Pakistan itself is a nuclear power. 13. On regime resilience, Abenante argues Iran has a median age under 32 and approximately 96% literacy, producing an active, educated society with genuine internal opposition concentrated among urban middle-class women and university students. 14. A contrasting 'deep Iran' of rural and provincial communities provides genuine regime support through Shi'ite Islam as the state's foundational ideology since 1979. 15. The Islamic Republic has multiple power centers—the presidency, Council of Guardians, Pasdaran, and Basij—making decapitation strategies targeting Khamenei structurally insufficient to cause regime collapse. 16. For Europe, Abenante identifies three concrete risks: disruption of energy supply chains particularly for oil and gas, damage to shipping and trade connections, and a heightened threat of terrorist attacks on European soil. 17. He criticizes the EU for diplomatic impotence, noting it was similarly ineffective during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and argues that diplomacy should not be perceived as weakness but as the only viable exit from armed conflict. 18. On Russia, Abenante makes a counterintuitive point: the US violation of international law in attacking Iran paradoxically reduces the perceived gravity of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine in global public opinion. 19. The format is a structured radio interview with one host and one academic expert; the tone is measured and analytical, aimed at a general public audience seeking context. 20. Listeners following geopolitical developments in the Middle East who want academic rather than journalistic framing will find the most value here; those seeking breaking news or policy prescriptions will find the analysis deliberately cautious.

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