Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas · Sean Carroll

Andrew Jaffe on Models, Probability, and the Universe

November 10, 2025·1 hr 18 min·5 clips
Andrew Jaffe reveals why models, like the London tube map, are essential for navigating reality, not just science.
Sean Carroll interviews theoretical cosmologist Andrew Jaffe about the role of models and probability in science, exploring how Bayesian thinking underpins our understanding of the universe from cosmology to quantum mechanics. They discuss the provisional nature of scientific knowledge, the Hubble constant tension, and philosophical debates around randomness and multiverse theory.

As heard by us

A supernova case study in why science works with models, not certainty.

Sean Carroll frames probability as a practical answer to a basic problem in science: certainty is rarely available, and competing models still need to be weighed.

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Why you'd press play

You want probability talk that survives contact with a real supernova.

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