Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas · Sean Carroll
345 | Adam Elga on Being Rational in a Very Large Universe
February 23, 2026·1 hr 35 min·5 clips
Adam Elga explains why you should defer to your past self when you and a friend disagree on splitting a bill.
As heard by us
A Bayes discussion that widens into fine-tuning, self-doubt, and AI trust.
The episode frames Bayesian updating as a practical way to think about uneven credences, with Sean Carroll and Adam Elga using dark matter ideas, the pi example, and the small but nonzero cosmological constant to show how scientists can sense patterns before they can fully…
Why you'd press play
If you like your Bayes with a side of cosmic unease, you are in the right place.
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