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La Story-Guerre en Iran : comment les marchés réagissent aux annonces de Trump

·28 min·2 clips

After a month of bombardment, Operation Epic Fury ends with a 15-day ceasefire, sparking a 5% surge in Parisian shares.

1. La Story from Les Echos focuses on how global financial markets have reacted to the Iran war and Trump's ceasefire announcement, hosted by Pierrick Fay. 2. The show features Les Echos stock market specialist Corentin Chaperon and New York correspondent Solveig Godeluc as guests. 3. The episode's core question is whether the market rebound after Trump's ceasefire announcement is durable and whether prediction markets may have been manipulated by insiders. 4. Operation Epic Fury, launched by the United States, was described by US Central Command as 'the most lethal, most complex and most precise aerial operation in history' aimed at eliminating Iran's ability to threaten Americans. 5. After a month and a half of Iranian-American exchanges including missile and drone strikes on Tehran, Trump announced a 15-day ceasefire, triggering a global equity rally. 6. Paris's CAC 40 jumped nearly 5%, its largest single-session rise since March 2022; the STOXX 600 rose more than 3%; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose approximately 3%; oil fell below $100 per barrel briefly before recovering. 7. The S&P 500 had lost only about 8% from the war's start compared to a 35% drop during Covid and a 20% drop during the Ukraine war, a resilience that surprised analysts. 8. Corentin Chaperon explains the disparity: the US is a net oil exporter and therefore structurally protected from energy price shocks, and US real interest rates are already positive, making an inflation rebound easier to contain. 9. European indices underperformed Wall Street because European companies are more exposed to Asian trade and many European countries depend on liquefied natural gas from the Middle East. 10. Bond markets, gold, and bitcoin all suffered during the conflict while stocks held up, reflecting a divergence: bond markets priced in lasting inflation while equity investors treated the conflict as a temporary non-event. 11. Corentin notes that in Europe, the STOXX 600 gained 0.8% on average between Monday and Wednesday each week since the conflict began, but lost 3.1% on average between Wednesday close and Friday close, as investors sold risk positions before weekends. 12. A Deutsche Bank study found Trump's social media posts have become a market force: during his ultimatum approach, markets declined, and each time Trump shifted his stance, indices recovered, a pattern analysts call the 'TACO trade' (Trump Always Chickens Out). 13. The TACO trade is structurally reinforced by the fact that American households hold an average of $100,000 in stocks and that midterm elections occur before year-end, giving Trump a political incentive to prevent sustained market declines. 14. Solveig Godeluc reports a Financial Times investigation found a Pentagon official's financial adviser moved millions of dollars from BlackRock into weapons manufacturers just before the Iran operation launched; the transaction triggered a BlackRock alert and was blocked. 15. On Friday 27 February, the day the Iran conflict began, more than 150 Polymarket accounts each bet at least $1,000 that bombings would occur the next day, an unusual cluster of new accounts bettors described as suspicious. 16. More than $170 million was bet on the Iran ceasefire question on Polymarket just before Trump's announcement, raising suspicions of insider information. 17. Donald Trump Jr. has invested in Polymarket and is paid to advise rival platform Kalshi, which is valued at $11 billion; the Trump administration is also described as broadly favorable to prediction market platforms. 18. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have set up compliance monitoring systems — Polymarket uses a real-time surveillance system, Kalshi hired IC360 — but both operate in a regulatory grey zone as Trump's SEC and CFTC heads are described as devoted loyalists who have cut enforcement. 19. The tone is analytical and expert-driven, with journalistic sources cited throughout including the Financial Times, New York Times, and Deutsche Bank research; the format is a two-host interview with a third guest joining remotely. 20. Best suited for French financial news consumers interested in the intersection of geopolitics, market behavior, and US political economy; will frustrate listeners wanting breaking news or simple explainers.

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