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CPI Next with Focus on Ceasefire as Weekend Looms

April 10, 2026·13 min·1 clip

As a fragile ceasefire looms, investors brace for March CPI data collected during war and $100 oil prices.

The episode opens with host Colette O'Claire noting that geopolitics dominate the market backdrop as the March CPI report approaches. The ceasefire between Israel and its adversaries appears fragile: Iran and the US are trading accusations about violations, and Israel claims its strikes on Hezbollah are not covered by the agreement. About 800 ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, affecting energy flows. Crude oil neared $100 per barrel on Thursday. Michelle Gibley of SCIFR notes that Iran may be seeking to retain control of Persian Gulf transit rights, with associated fees, complicating any durable peace. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 0.7% for March on a monthly basis, with annual headline inflation at 3.3% and core at 2.7%. Kevin Gordon warns that with nominal wage growth at 3.4% for non-supervisory workers, real wage growth could be near zero or negative for March. He suggests the war-distorted March data may be best disregarded in favor of April's figures. The prior day's PCE data showed headline and core prices both rose 0.4%, with annual core at 3%, in line with expectations. Cooper Howard of SCIFR says prolonged elevated oil prices increase the probability of inflation feeding through more broadly, noting the pre-war PCE data already showed inflation was not purely an energy problem. The government's final Q4 GDP estimate was revised down to 0.5% from 0.7%, and the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP Now tracker sits at 1.3%. Lizanne Saunders of Schwab notes non-residential fixed investment has decelerated from 10% to 7% to 3% to 2% over four straight quarters, calling it the biggest economic disappointment. Weekly jobless claims came in at 219,000, above recent levels but not alarming. Fed rate cut odds stand at 30% for sometime in 2025, up from 23% a week ago, with April's meeting expected to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75% for a third straight time. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.29%, near the middle of its recent range. The VIX volatility index fell below 20 for the first time since the war began, though bulls are warned any spike higher could signal trouble. Thursday's market saw the S&P 500 gain 0.62% and the Nasdaq add 0.83%, extending a seven-session winning streak. S&P 500 cleared both its 200-day and 100-day moving averages on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Notable individual movers included Marvell Technology up 5% on a Barclays upgrade, Amazon gaining on data center investment announcements, and Constellation Brands surging 8% on better-than-expected quarterly results. Earnings season begins next week with Goldman Sachs on Monday and JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday, with analysts projecting 15.1% financial sector earnings growth versus 6% a year ago.

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