The episode begins with Matheus Spiess greeting listeners and noting the date as Wednesday, February 25, 2026. He reports positive international market performance, starting with good results in Asia driven by technology companies. Liquidity has returned due to the Chinese market reopening after the New Year holiday, which is beneficial for markets. Positive consumption data post-holiday also encourages investors. European markets open positively, recovering from a correction linked to a C-Trending Research report involving the IAEA. HSBC results contribute to this recovery. U.S. futures open high, continuing the rebound from the C-Trending report. The State of the Union address by President Trump is mentioned, but it had little market impact. Geopolitical vectors like tariffs and Iran are noted as potential developments, but they don't dampen the overall good mood. In Brazil, domestic factors become the focus, particularly the Atlas Intel survey published that morning. Brazil has seen important records, including the 13th Ibovespa closing record of the year and the dollar's fourth consecutive fall to its highest level since early 2024. The survey shows Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy gaining viability, with a tie against President Lula in a second-round scenario. This surprises the campaign and concerns the government. Flávio Bolsonaro has absorbed votes from his father, former President Bolsonaro, and run his campaign effectively by targeting the central electorate. President Lula has failed to engage moderate voters in recent months, leading to high government rejection and falling approval ratings. Flávio's rise indicates a potential inflection in Brazil's political pendulum. This political shift is linked to the thesis for the next stage of the bull market in Brazil. Economic factors supporting this include the entry of foreign capital (gringo flux), falling interest rates, and the possibility of an electoral rally from the Refiscalista project. The episode suggests these elements could transform Brazilian assets, with some effects already visible in market openings. Other factors like government and corporate results, such as from Nubank, are mentioned, but the host indicates the day's topic will be more political. The episode wraps up by emphasizing the interplay between politics and market performance.
