Rude Awakening 24/02/2026

·10 min·1 clip

How does the Chinese New Year reopening and better-than-expected holiday demand set the tone for global markets this Tuesday?

The episode begins with Matheus Spiess greeting listeners and noting the return of global liquidity after the Chinese New Year holiday. He reports positive reopenings in Shenzhen and Shanghai, with most Asian indices rising except for Hong Kong's technology sector pressure. European markets show shy recovery attempts, while U.S. futures are more verifiably high. The day's agenda includes corporate results, monetary authority talks, and President Donald Trump's State of the Union address, which could impact global volatility. In Brazil, the dollar hit its lowest level against the Real since early 2024, with interest rates stable and Bovespa rising timidly after a correction. The episode shifts to Brasília's debate on ending the 6x1 work scale, which Spiess criticizes as moving in the wrong direction. He explains Brazil's heated labor market, attributing it to Michel Temer's reforms maturing, statistical distortions from assistentialism, and the gig economy. Spiess outlines challenges: 40 million formal workers, 10 million employers, 38 million informal workers, and 3 million public service workers. He argues for labor market flexibility to formalize informals, reduce tax burden, and increase population income. The discussion contrasts with current debates on increasing the state and public server costs. Later, Spiess covers corporate results, including Gerdau's management results and ADR reactions, Groupon de Açúcar, and Vale's copper production forecast in Carajás. Other updates include Telefônica Brasil's dividends, Desktop's stalled internet sale negotiations, BTG Pactual's increased stake in Compas, and potential IPOs like Compas Gás e Energia. The episode also mentions the Citrine report on AI impacts, with market digestion explaining timid U.S. futures recovery. Spiess concludes with a preview of the evening market close.

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