Mateus Empiricus explains why a market recovery is spreading from Brazil to Asia after Monday's sharp correction.
The episode begins with Mateus Empiricus noting a market recovery spreading from Brazil to Asia and Europe after Monday's corrections. He mentions gold's volatility, rising to $5,500 per ounce before settling at $4,900. The host then shifts to U.S. Federal Reserve developments, interpreting Kevin Walsh's indication as hawkish. A significant portion focuses on Brazil, where market noise arose from the potential appointment of Guilherme Mello, a heterodox academic, to the Central Bank, drawing parallels to earlier skepticism around Gallipoli. Empiricus explains a monetary policy paradox: central bankers must initially raise rates aggressively to build credibility for future cuts. He notes that such political risks can dilute monetary policy effectiveness. The morning's market shows a dilution of this noise, with the dollar falling and futures rising. The agenda includes postponed U.S. employment data due to a shutdown, with private data like ADP still expected. Upcoming corporate events include Amazon and Alphabet earnings, and a deal between SpaceX and XAI that could form a trillion-dollar company. Other news covers a U.S.-India trade agreement and potential U.S.-Iran talks affecting oil prices. In Brazil, the coupon act confirmed a chance of a 25 or 50 basis point interest rate cut, with discussions on how political indications might influence this. Corporate updates include Banco de Brasília canceling AGEs, Banco do Brasil launching a PIX-like solution for Argentine tourists, and Fitch downgrading BB company. Rapid Vida agrees to return a hospital property for R$41.2 million, Fleury approves a share resumption program, and Taurus extends an acquisition deal for Mertsaf. CPFL approves an incorporation involving R$927 million, and Copaz's privatization is noted. TOTUS sells assets to Evertech for R$950 million, potentially reaching R$1.4 billion, and TIM negotiates with IHS Fiber do Brasil. The episode ends with a preview of Brazil's results season starting with HOME and major banks, and a promise of a market closing update later.
