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462. Börsen just nu: hur påverkar händelserna i Iran börsen? | Livepodd med André Granström

·1 hr 43 min·5 clips

A global index fund returned 22.91% in the year after the 'Trump crash' bottom, despite widespread panic.

The episode is a live podcast recording where host Jan Bollmesson is joined by regular guest André Granström to discuss current events in Iran and their potential effects on the stock market and global economy. They start with a disclaimer about investment risks and the hosts' potential ownership of mentioned assets. The conversation opens with a reflection on market timing, noting they booked the episode just before a significant geopolitical announcement. Bollmesson presents historical data showing that despite frequent market declines, long-term returns are positive, and markets often rise in the 12 months following major geopolitical events. Granström adds that such events typically cause short-term volatility but rarely have long-term impacts, reinforcing a 'sit still in the boat' investing philosophy. The hosts then delve into the specifics of the Iran situation, focusing on the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Granström explains its role in transporting 20 million barrels of oil daily, primarily to Asia, and highlights broader supply chain dependencies for goods, food imports, and water desalination materials. They discuss potential ripple effects, including humanitarian crises from food and water shortages. Bollmesson presents data indicating the current disturbance is the largest to the global oil market since WWII, with minimal spare capacity. The discussion covers sharp price increases in oil, jet fuel, natural gas, and petrochemicals like naphtha, which affects plastics, textiles, and medical supplies. The hosts take live questions from the audience, addressing topics like 'dry powder' investing, portfolio rebalancing during declines, and whether to invest lump sums immediately or over time. They critique the common advice of keeping cash on the sidelines, arguing it's a form of difficult and costly market timing. Later, they analyze how financial markets are currently pricing the crisis. By examining oil futures, interest rates, credit default swaps, and volatility indices, they conclude that while inflation expectations have risen modestly, there's no market panic or pricing of severe global growth damage. They note a disconnect between alarming media headlines and relatively calm market indicators. The episode concludes with a summary of key takeaways: maintain a long-term perspective, continue regular savings, avoid trying to time the market, and ensure your investment portfolio is robust enough to withstand volatility.

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