REX · rova | REX

Real Optimism with Julia Jones - Panic Slowly; Simon Quilty & red meat markets

April 8, 2026·33 min·3 clips

Simon Quilty forecasts lamb and beef prices rising another 12–15% by July–August 2026 driven by tight supply in Australia, Brazil, and the US.

The starting point is simple enough. Simon is heading to Christchurch on May 20 for Beef and Lamb New Zealand, and Julia asks what he is seeing in the market right now. His answer is messy, because the market is messy. He puts Middle East complexity, China safeguards on beef, and strong North American demand into one moving picture. New Zealand's direct exposure to the Middle East is small, but that is not the whole story. Simon is more interested in how trouble in one place pushes trade flows somewhere else. Julia keeps bringing the conversation back to the people on the ground. What does this mean for red meat producers? Where are the risks? Where might the openings be? Simon points to tighter supply. With Brazil, America, and Australia either rebuilding or facing tighter numbers, New Zealand has a chance to fill gaps in higher-value markets. That backfilling idea carries a lot of the episode. It is not a miracle fix, but it helps explain why New Zealand may benefit when bigger suppliers have fewer cattle to sell. Then currency moves into the same farm-level conversation. Simon says the US dollar, not gold, has become the safe haven as Middle East tensions rise. The Kiwi has already slipped, from just above 60 cents in early February to 58.29 now. He also remembers 75 cents back in 2021. For exporters, that shift matters. A weaker Kiwi can help the market picture, even if the reasons behind it are uncomfortable and well outside anyone's control. The close stays calm on purpose. Julia and Simon come back to the practical line from last year: know what New Zealand does well, accept that complexity keeps changing shape, and panic slowly.

As heard by us

A grounded livestock-market discussion that turns trade pressure into practical consequences for New Zealand producers.

Real Optimism stays close to the hard mechanics of global red meat trade. Middle East demand, China's safeguards, North American appetite, and what all of that means for New Zealand producers are the real focus, with Simon Quilty circling back to supply, demand, prices, and…

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

Need a plain-English read on red meat markets, the Middle East, China safeguards, and what could keep prices supported?

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from REX