Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast · Kathy Fettke / RealWealth

Iran Conflict, Tariffs, and AI: J Scott Breaks Down the Economic Risks for Real Estate

·24 min·1 clip

Jay says AI could lower real estate values through deflation, wages, and rent pressure.

1. Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast centers on Iran conflict, tariffs, and AI as risks for real estate. 2. Kathy Fetke hosts Jay Scott, a real estate investor and economy watcher, because he follows inflation, interest rates, and lending. 3. The episode asks what investors should do when war, trade policy, and AI make the outlook uncertain. 4. Jay says investors do not need perfect forecasts and should aim to be “directionally correct” on inflation, interest rates, and lending. 5. He says the length of the Iran conflict is the key unknown because a short war and a three-month war create different outcomes. 6. Jay argues that short-lived energy shocks may fade quickly, while longer disruptions can hit supply chains and trading partners. 7. He names China, South Korea, and Taiwan as countries that rely on Middle East natural gas to produce products for the U.S. 8. He compares a prolonged disruption to COVID-era shortages, including constraints on items like toilet paper. 9. Jay says the Fed researched 2022 oil spikes and found that gas prices affect inflation less than many people assume. 10. He gives a range of 0.1% to 0.15% inflation for each 10% rise in crude oil. 11. He says that even a 30% to 40% oil increase might only add a few tenths of a percent to inflation. 12. Jay says the inflation risk rises if the war lasts long enough for energy infrastructure to be destroyed and rebuilt. 13. He says the U.S. is spending “a billion dollars a day” on the war, which he ties to deficit spending and inflation. 14. Jay says Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar could push those countries to sell more U.S. bonds. 15. He says more bond supply could raise interest rates and hurt GDP if those countries divert capital to rebuild at home. 16. Jay says tariffs have produced less inflation than he expected, though headline inflation rose from about 2.3% to 2.8% or 2.9%. 17. He says uncertainty is already slowing transactions, hiring, and investment decisions in multifamily real estate. 18. The conversation sounds like a direct investor Q&A, with Kathy pressing on headlines and Jay answering with frameworks and numbers. 19. Real estate investors watching inflation, rates, and long-term AI risk. 20. Listeners wanting hard market context, not policy debate.

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