Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast · Kathy Fettke / RealWealth

CBRE Forecast 2026: Rate Cuts, Cap Rates & What's Next for Commercial Real Estate

·26 min·1 clip

Henry Chin says U.S. commercial real estate is attractive because supply, pricing, REITs, and financing all line up.

1. Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast frames this episode around CBRE’s 2026 outlook for rate cuts, cap rates, and commercial real estate. 2. Kathy Fetke hosts Henry Chin, CBRE’s Global Head of Research, whose role matters because he oversees global research across markets. 3. The episode asks what is really happening behind headlines about cooling job growth, elevated rates, and a rebound in commercial real estate investment. 4. Henry says 2025 surprised CBRE with the resilience of the U.S. economy, but he expects below-trend growth in 2026. 5. He forecasts hiring will be relatively flat in the first half of 2026 and pick up in the second half. 6. Henry says the Fed is likely to cut rates twice because inflation is still sticky and the labor market is weakening. 7. He puts the working forecast at GDP around 2% and inflation around 2-plus percent. 8. He contrasts the U.S. with Australia and Japan, where similar data has led to rate increases rather than cuts. 9. Henry says CBRE’s December investor-intention survey showed the U.S. had the strongest net intention to buy more real estate globally. 10. He says that U.S. strength comes from repriced assets, anticipated rate cuts, and pricing that looks attractive versus Europe and Asia Pacific. 11. Henry names four drivers behind his positive U.S. real estate view: supply, recovery, pricing, and the cost of finance. 12. He says offices and retail have limited future supply, while recovery is happening across asset types. 13. He also says REIT valuations look unusually attractive relative to the broader equity market. 14. Henry points to London, Spain, and Warsaw in Europe as resilient markets, and Japan and Australia in Asia Pacific. 15. On flight to quality, he says office demand favors prime CBD locations, retail favors neighborhood malls in high-population-growth areas, and logistics favors modern facilities close to consumers. 16. He says office and retail occupiers still have bargaining power, while industrial landlords can push rent growth because supply is tight. 17. For multifamily, Henry says CBRE’s U.S. investor-intention survey again ranked it number one. 18. He ties multifamily strength to Sunbelt oversupply, population growth, high-cost coastal markets such as New York, Chicago, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, and high financing costs that keep many consumers renting. 19. The episode is interview-driven, data-heavy, and practical, with Kathy Fetke pressing Henry for implications for underwriting and portfolio strategy. 20. Listeners who track commercial real estate cycles, multifamily, and cap rates will get the most value, while casual listeners looking for light conversation may skip it.

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