Real Vision: Finance & Investing · Real Vision Podcast Network

Markets React to US-Iran Conflict

·41 min·1 clip

The Supreme Leader is dead, and Iran shifted strategy—attacking Dubai, Bahrain, Doha, and other Gulf civilian centers marked a dangerous new escalation.

Macro Mondays opens after a hectic weekend, with Mikael Rosenwald steering the conversation toward how markets are digesting the shock. Andreas says everything is up in the air, which feels about right for this tape. The freshly released ISM index is roughly flat from the prior month, but prices paid are higher, and he ties that straight back to energy and shipping pressure. So this is not treated as a headline scare on its own. It becomes a test of inflation pressure, transport costs, and whether equities can keep their footing. Airspace disruption is the most practical example. Cancelled flights, refunds, longer southern routes, and higher fuel use turn the geopolitical event into a cost problem for EU allies. Meanwhile, equity markets are not falling apart in real time. Andreas notes that small caps have flipped positive and the broader S&P is almost back to flat, which suggests the worst worry may have been priced in during overnight futures. That is not a victory lap. His caveat is blunt enough: a complete meltdown in the Strait of Hormuz would change the setup fast. For now, oil looks calmer than feared. Andreas makes the contrarian point that prices may have peaked near the open, even if that is not the obvious mood of the market. He uses the invasion of Iraq carefully, as an example where equities bottomed around the invasion date, while stressing that this is not an invasion discussion. The base case is guarded, not heroic. If Mikael's timeline is right, Andreas thinks markets can probably absorb the immediate shock without broad equity exposure taking too much damage. Hedges still have a place. Military drones, natural gas, energy, and shipping are the areas he names for investors who want protection. The quieter story is the plumbing of a longer regional shock. Andreas says people focus on the well-known share of daily oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but another large regional flow could matter too, with fertilizer inflation as one possible pressure point if this lasts.

As heard by us

A practical first pass on how Middle East risk moves oil, shipping, and equities.

This discussion keeps its focus on how a geopolitical shock moves through oil, shipping, equities, and trader nerves. The strongest stretches stay close to the tape: what opens higher or lower, what can still hold, and which parts of the market look useful as a hedge.

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Why you'd press play

When a hectic weekend in the Middle East starts moving oil before breakfast, this is the market read you want.

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