Real Vision: Finance & Investing · Real Vision Podcast Network

Is Macro Regime Shift Underway? ft. Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold

·34 min·3 clips

Andreas Steno explains why a capex surge and low inflation signal a bullish macro regime shift.

The setup is pretty direct. After the Real Vision intro, Macro Mondays moves into market volatility, Kevin Walsh, and a macro regime model that may be turning. Inflation is the hinge. Andreas says the next couple of months could deliver some of the softest inflation prints in years, which matters because consensus still seems stuck in the old rhythm. His nowcast is much lower: monthly inflation around 13 to 15 basis points, a little above 0.1%, versus consensus at 0.3% for January. That gap is the irritant. The dry joke is that analysts may be recycling the familiar 0.3% number instead of running the math, and he says some Federal Reserve Banks' nowcasts point the same way. The surprise, then, is not just lower inflation. It is lower inflation showing up at the same time as CapEx cyclical spending, which he sees as different from the last four or five months. That is the regime-shift case, but it is still framed as nowcast work and probabilities, not a victory lap. The CapEx cycle is being worked into expectations slowly. The trade read is rotation. Andreas thinks this setup can work against some positions investors crowded into from the start of the year. Precious metals come up first; the best window for that trade, in his view, may already be past. Equities matter too. He points to consumer staples, industrials, and energy trading higher, including relative to consumer discretionary and technology. The market question is cyclical: if inflation undershoots while CapEx spending firms, which sectors and macro trades still deserve the benefit of the doubt? This is not an all-clear. It stays in the Real Vision lane: catalyst, market implication, caveat.

As heard by us

A macro discussion of volatility, inflation nowcasts, and a possible rotation out of the year's leading trades.

The episode centers on market volatility, the capex cycle, and a regime shift in the current environment. It links that turn to softer inflation readings, near-term nowcasts that sit below the usual consensus, and the chance of a change in positioning.

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Why you'd press play

You want a clean read on whether the macro backdrop is shifting.

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