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RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia/NZ

Turning clouds: Rainfall boosts confidence, with an above-average Australian crop likely for 2025/26

·24 min·2 clips
Australia's wheat crop could hit 30+ million tons, but global oversupply is crushing prices.
The episode begins with host Angus introducing the seasonal transition and welcoming grains analyst Vito. Vito reports that after a dry start, July brought above-average rainfall to most cropping areas, improving soil moisture. The forecast for September to November indicates continued wet conditions in eastern Australia, supporting crop growth. Vito projects a wheat crop of 30+ million tons, barley up to 15 million tons, and canola up to 6.5 million tons, all above historical averages. He notes that global grain supplies are strong, with rebuilding stocks in soybeans, wheat, and corn, leading to low prices. Angus asks about Australian grain stocks, and Vito explains that wheat stocks are high, which will pressure prices as the new harvest enters the market. The conversation shifts to global feed markets, with Angus highlighting potential downside from U.S. cattle numbers and large corn harvests. They discuss beef trade dynamics, including Brazilian tariffs and implications for Australian exports. Vito then covers canola, noting reduced European demand and new Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola seed, which could increase competition for Australia in markets like Japan. The episode concludes with Vito's price outlook: bullish for pulses and canola, bearish for wheat and barley due to supply pressures. He suggests farmers consider the economics of harvesting wheat as hay given high hay prices.

As heard by us

Rain frames the harvest outlook as global feed-grain supply keeps pressure on Australian prices.

Rain gives this grains-market check-in its hinge. After a wet spell in Sydney, Angus and Vito look at whether moisture is reaching the areas that need it as Australia moves toward harvest.

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Why you'd press play

You want a timely grains-and-livestock check-in as harvest nears and rain could still shape yields, feed demand, and price direction.

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