The Future of Oil with Michael Lynch

·47 min·4 clips

Energy analyst Michael Lynch explains why predictions of both oil depletion and oversupply have been wrong.

Alex Epstein introduces the episode by noting the Texas electricity crisis and transitions to a discussion on the long-term future of oil with guest Michael Lynch. Lynch begins by analyzing the Texas crisis, attributing it to underinvestment in reliability and over-reliance on volatile renewables. The conversation shifts to Lynch's essay on peak oil demand, where he criticizes superficial predictions influenced by the pandemic. Lynch reviews historical energy predictions that failed, including Amory Lovins' hyper-efficient car, hydrogen fuel cells promoted by Ballard Power and DaimlerChrysler, and cellulosic ethanol mandates. He emphasizes that such failures don't prove new predictions wrong but warrant skepticism. Lynch discusses why resources like wood and stone rarely go out of use, using them as analogies for oil's potential longevity. The episode compares the Model T's advantages over horses to the current shortcomings of electric vehicles, noting EVs' higher costs, limited range, and long charging times. Lynch addresses the trend toward SUVs globally, contradicting assumptions of green consumer preferences. He critiques battery cost estimates as fuzzy and often misleading, highlighting a lack of transparency compared to oil pricing. The discussion covers mandates for EVs and renewables, which Lynch views as taxes on the poor that disguise costs. Lynch explores grid challenges with increased EV adoption and scaling issues for battery raw materials like rare earth minerals. He provides estimates of global hydrocarbon deposits, noting abundant oil, gas, and coal resources. Lynch mentions emerging technologies such as bacteria for oil recovery, carbon capture for natural gas plants, and small modular nuclear reactors. The episode concludes with Lynch sharing where to find his work, and Epstein promotes his Twitter analysis of the Texas crisis.

As heard by us

Lynch asks why a reportedly cheaper battery pack has not brought down the Nissan Leaf's price.

Alex Epstein brings Michael Lynch back to Power Hour to talk about oil's future. Epstein says the familiar worry about running out of oil has given way to a different one: that there may be more than people can use.

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

If oil's future feels hard to picture, start with the Nissan Leaf price question.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Power Hour with Alex Epstein