PERSPEKTIVEN To Go – der Börsenpodcast · Deutsche Bank

Nahostkonflikt: Bleibt Gold auch unter Druck ein sicherer Hafen?

·14 min·1 clip

Uli explains why gold is falling despite being a traditional safe harbor during the Persian Gulf war crisis.

The episode opens with Jessica Schwarzer asking Dr. Ulrich Stephan if gold remains a safe haven during the Persian Gulf crisis. Stephan explains two factors pressuring gold: investors selling gold hedges as they liquidate stock positions, and central banks selling gold for liquidity to support weakening currencies. He notes that non-energy-producing countries' currencies are particularly vulnerable, forcing gold sales. Interest rates and inflation expectations are rising, but gold recently rose due to economic uncertainties. Stephan references the Edelmetall Forum, where John Reed from the World Gold Council predicted short-term gold declines due to high volatility, though long-term resilience persists. Stephan disagrees on the short-term safe-haven label but expects volatility, remaining optimistic for gold over 6-12 months. The conversation shifts to stock markets, with the S&P 500 in its longest losing streak in weeks. Stephan emphasizes the Strait of Hormuz blockade's duration as critical, warning that prolonged closure could cause recession, starting in Asia and Europe due to energy dependencies. Analysts have downgraded growth forecasts, but recession isn't yet priced into bond yields. Fitch's warning about low earners being hit by a stock crash is discussed, linked to 401(k) plans and U.S. political concerns ahead of midterm elections. Stephan notes President Trump's focus on the S&P 500 as a success metric, complicating escalation desires. Diplomatic efforts involving Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are mentioned, with talks ongoing but risks high. For investors, Stephan advises a neutral stance, underweighting cyclical sectors and favoring energy and suppliers, while adding German state loans at 3.1% yields. He reiterates gold's medium-term safe-haven role amid multiple global uncertainties like Ukraine and trade disputes. The episode concludes with anticipation of ongoing topics.

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