PERSPEKTIVEN To Go – der Börsenpodcast · Deutsche Bank

Jahresausblick 2026: Chancen, Risiken und die Rolle der KI

·21 min·2 clips

Will artificial intelligence dominate stock markets in 2026, and what specific opportunities and risks await investors?

The episode begins with hosts Jessica Schwarzer and Uli Stephan introducing the annual outlook for 2026, focusing on investor prospects and specific market topics. Uli starts by outlining risks, including geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, alongside protectionist measures like nearshoring and rare earths discussions. He mentions cybercrime, disinformation linked to elections, and rising state debt in countries like France, the UK, and Germany. The conversation shifts to economic forecasts, with Uli predicting 3% global growth, driven by 4.5% in China, 2% in the US, and 1.2% in Germany. Inflation risks are noted due to expansive fiscal policies and AI investments, but targets of under 3% in the US and 2% in Europe are expected. The US midterm elections and 250th independence day are highlighted as economic factors, with Trump's policies like tax cuts and deregulations discussed. Stock market projections include a 15% upside for the S&P 500 to 7,500, 13% for the DAX to 26,100, and 12% for Japan's Nikkei. The Magnificent Seven are analyzed, with a 24% profit increase forecasted, but earnings season volatility is warned. Tariffs under Trump are addressed, with impacts on small and medium enterprises mitigated by Fed rate cuts and European stimulus. Bond markets are explored, favoring Italian government bonds after a credit upgrade and UK gilts due to Bank of England policies. Corporate bonds and emerging markets are considered, with currency risks noted. The US dollar is expected to stabilize after recent weakness, influencing gold prices, which may rise but slower due to central bank buying. Industrial commodities like iron and copper are deemed complex for retail investors due to contract structures and tariff sensitivities. Cryptocurrencies are compared to gold, with Bitcoin's volatility likened to risky assets rather than safe havens. The episode concludes with advice on risk management, diversification, and active investing for 2026, emphasizing the need to exceed inflation-adjusted returns.

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